As shown in this daily chart there have been about 9 false break outs above the 1.495-- resistance level, all of which resulted in a reversal pulling down way below the resistance level. Some of which reversed in the same day, only down around the 1.49--- level. Most however shorted down to the 1.48--- support level and some even shorted down to the 1.46--- support level. I am predicting that this pair over the opening day will short down to at least the 1.49-1.48 level of support.
Just because it went down 9 times, it doesn't mean that it will go down this time as well. On the other hand, I also think that there will be a retracement.