Down on the H4 chart, nevertheless, early on in London trade we saw candle action fake below demand at 1.5174-1.5188 into another demand coming in at 1.5133-1.5164, and reach highs of 1.5238. As price is now back trading around yesterday’s prices, we still have our eye on the mid-level barrier 1.5250 for a confirmed short today. This level not only boasts additional resistance from the higher timeframes (weekly channel support-turned resistance line/daily swap supply – see above), but also has a 50.0% Fibonacci resistance line just above it at 1.5260. The reason for requiring confirmation here is simply because fixed levels such as 1.5250 are prone to fakeouts.
Although price recently responded well to demand at 1.5133-1.5164, this is not an area we feel is worthy of a second bounce. In fact, we were surprised by the recent one! This comes from having absolutely no connection with the higher timeframes, thus making it low probability in our opinion. It would only be around the around the psychological 1.5100 that our team would begin looking to buy this market again, owing to it converging nicely with a daily swap (support) barrier at 1.5107 (the next downside target from the aforementioned daily swap area).