Hello, this week this pair is very insteresting because price moved after a long period of consolidation. I know also the popularity of this pair, there are many possible scenarios and valid counts, this is MY ew count and projected long term scenario.
Be sure to check my previous works on EURUSD and GBPCAD, there are still valid and working fine so far (see related ideas):
In this weekly chart we see price is in a long term consolidaritn after a five wave decline. From my point of view price is unfolding as an ABC zigzag (circle red). Right now i expect a final wave C red to the upside, this wave should be a strong motive one.
Currently price is retracing for wave 2 (blue), this retracement should be a deep choppy one, this is usually the personality of this wave. The target for wave 2(blue) is near the 1.4600-1.48000 level, near the long term support (red ) and corrective channel (purple).
When price reach those levels i expect a strong rebound to the upside for a long term rally. We can look for harmonic patterns near that area (bat or cypher, see below)
Potential bullish cypher on D1:
Potential bullish bat on D1
The green arrow shows the possible price path.
Invalidation level: below 1.4557
Best regards.
Comments
look4edge
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hi, longterm trend is down
i think, ew itself is problematic in 4x, and traditional ew even more, although there are some neowave updates of it - look at rectangle here - very strange waves, no ew structure - break of a-c-e line of previous triangle and then rebreak down, could be wave f, g, so top could be wave X, now wave Y running
currently shortterm pitchfork has been rejected hard, so downtrend has been resumed
look4edge
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detail of wave x
FullTimeTrader
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Hello, very interesting long term charts. Agree that LONG TERM the trend is down (look my bearish flag/pennant), but i expect one more lep up before the final decline, keeping my mind opened to possible alternate scenarios. Personally EW is just another tool that give me some information, i use differents tools to find more clues about the possible price action. There is no exact tool in trading, so i will be careful before saying EW is useless or something like that.
IvanLabrie
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Looks like a zigzag with a diametric B but I can't put labels on it without spending a couple man hours on charting it.
FullTimeTrader
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Very interesting NewWave ideas, may be i will take a look next year but i want to go step by step first mastering EW.
I started fresh, that's why I'm studying neowave on top of the time at mode methodology.
Has more rules and guidelines to let you arrive at only one final count after everything's applied. This makes it really impractical to trade, since you'd have confirmation after a pattern is completed mostly.
It does lend well to top/bottom picking though, but tops and bottoms are rare.
You do well, if you are already deep into the EWI school, and already certified, it'd be a stretch.
Ultimately it's like you say, you use it as an extra, but you have your trading tools which have given good results before.
alr14uk
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Ivan, interested in your statement that Neo Wave is good for picking tops/bottoms... Have you looked at AUDCHF on the weekly/monthly charts? Also, I'm thinking AUDUSD is also looking like a trend reversal. Be interested to hear your thoughts if you have time to look at those charts.
IvanLabrie
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Oh, I'm just a beginner with it. I was referring to Elliott Wave in general. Picking tops/bottoms is its specialty. It gets really hard to trade when you're in a B wave for example.
To make proper Elliott Wave analysis you need a very high liquidity instrument, that is mostly driven by mass speculation, and not affected by non-human emotion related events, like the weather for example (this would make agriculturals' EW analysis moot from Glenn Neely's perspective).
In the case of AUDUSD, I'm not sure you can even perform EW analysis on it, even less AUDCHF. It seems to me that everything connected to China and Japan is being affected by the S&P500 crashing, and the crisis in China, so it's really hard to call a bottom there.
IvanLabrie
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(and AUDUSD and AUDCHF are really small markets, hence the EW counts might prove unreliable)
i think, ew itself is problematic in 4x, and traditional ew even more, although there are some neowave updates of it - look at rectangle here - very strange waves, no ew structure - break of a-c-e line of previous triangle and then rebreak down, could be wave f, g, so top could be wave X, now wave Y running
currently shortterm pitchfork has been rejected hard, so downtrend has been resumed