On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave 5 of (1) of the higher level is developing. Locally the downward correction has formed as a fourth wave of the lower level iv of 5. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.4400–1.4500. The level of 1.3761 is critical for this scenario.
Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.3761 with the targets at 1.4400–1.4500.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3761 will let the pair go down to the level of 1.3480.
Trade
Scenario
Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 1.3854 Take Profit 1.4400, 1.4500 Stop Loss 1.3670 Key Levels 1.3480, 1.3761, 1.4400, 1.4500
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.3750 Take Profit 1.3480 Stop Loss 1.3840 Key Levels 1.3480, 1.3761, 1.4400, 1.4500