Potential shorting opportunity on the GBP

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
Weekly Timeframe: The situation on the weekly timeframe shows that sterling has strongly broke above a weekly swap level seen at 1.5270. This move has likely opened the gates for further upside towards a weekly supply area visible at 1.5784-1.5541.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday was clearly a good day for anyone long sterling, as price closed above the aforementioned weekly swap level, and has (at the time of writing) almost hit a neighboring daily swap level seen above at 1.5433.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the recent buying originated from a small 4hr demand area seen at 1.5195-1.5227. Price rallied strongly from here breaking above both the 1.5300 level and the converging downtrend line extended from the high 1.5681. This move consequently forced the market to test 1.5400. In the event that price breaks above 1.5400, entering long may not be the best path to take considering that the daily swap level at 1.5433 is looming just above. A far more conservative approach to buying would (in our opinion) be to wait for price to break above and retest this daily level.

Selling on the other hand between 1.5400 and 1.5433 (green box) is something that has caught our team’s eye. However, we have no intention of selling at market here, owing to the fact that price has just strongly broken above a major weekly swap level (see above). Therefore, we have decided to patiently watch how price action unfolds on the lower timeframes around this green zone, if a confirmation sell signal is seen, we’ll then look to get short and ride the probable wave down to at least Friday’s high at 1.5351.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: currently watching for lower timeframe confirmation between 1.5400 and 1.5433 (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

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Hi there, thanks for the excellent analysis. 38.2 putting up a bit of a fight at the moment assuming bearish resolution of the 38.2, what is realistic tgt?
I have 1.5269 as a possible tgt

Also looking forward to your trading series, when will it begin?
Cryptoelite Cryptoelite
ICmarkets Cryptoelite
Great work Skuffone, I see you saw our most recent update on the GBP already... Regarding the videos, We are not too sure when they will be released... It should not be too long though, once they are, we'll send you the link.

IC markets
Thanks, this idea looks really great!
How do you define and confirm a sell signal? does the price have to retest the 1.5400 - 1.5433 resistance a few times or just close below a certain price in the lower time frame?
ICmarkets yossi.ramot
Hi Yossi,

The team at ICmarkets are going to be shortly releasing a 3-part series of how our analysts view the markets, please do look out for them.

In short though, we look for opposing demand (in this case) to be consumed/broken, then we look to trade the retest at the next obvious supply. Hope this helps.

IC markets
danndc ICmarkets
thanks IC, my only question is, do you think the pair has topped at 15420 and turned aiming for 14950? or do you think it could go further up before dropping? if so, how high it could go in your opinion?
yossi.ramot ICmarkets
Thank you, can't wait to see the series.
danndc yossi.ramot
what is your opinion? do you got open positions?
The team is still watching for lower timeframe confirmation just below the green zone at 1.5400/1.5433
danndc ICmarkets
can you keep updating?
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