QUICK ANAYSIS: GBPUSD: First, understand what is happening

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
Upon my recent loss on the trade I had on this pair where I lost -81 pips (see Related Ideas: "CLOSED TRADE: GBPUSD: SELL@1.52032 SL Hit (-81 pips)"), I went back again to take a look at the OVERALL picture for this pair. It's always important to know what the big picture is when making trades on a smaller TF and scale. Well here is what I am seeing:

This was the DAILY Chart I posted 10 days ago:
Here it is now with the updated price action:

See the difference? In that chart I posted 10 days ago, I was predicting that prices would go down. And it did. The difference was that I thought prices would head down and complete that POTENTIAL Butterfly waiting below. What I did not account for was that the down trend heading to the completion of the butterfly would not be a straight shot. It would be a abc pattern. Which is what is playing out now.

Also. see how prices are "stepping" their way down? I've drawn out 3 TL's that are holding each retrace and forcing prices down as each TL gets retested. Also, note that the lows set back in April of this year have yet to be retested. Almost EVERYTIME there is a a MAJOR low/high set on any chart on any pair, that low/high point will almost assuredly get retested. This low has yet to be retested. And that is the BIG picture right now that is happening. Prices are headed back down to retest that low. When it does, prices will either need to break through that low and if so, will start a new MAJOR down trend. If prices retest and fails to break through (as I am expecting) we will see a MAJOR trend heading back up. In this case, I am seeing a wave (C) up from wherever the retest will end.

On the DAILY charts above, you see I have drawn in 2 POTENTIAL patterns. One is the aforementioned butterfly and the other a bat. The butterfly I am thinking will be filled soon but that will only mark an end to the wave (c) of the larger wave B of wave (B). The bat completes at the .886 retrace inside the G-Zone which is a strong reversal point.

Here is the 4HR view of what is happening according to my wave count:

On the MAIN chart above (1HR Chart), I zoom in on the current price action. You can see that prices have now ht             a MAJOR SR Structrue that stems from the DAILY chart . So this SR level has some meaning. What I also am showing is that there is a COMPLETED bat pattern here whose D point is right there at the MAJOR SR. And prices are also testing that TL line I have drawn on the DAILY chart . Keep in mind that TL's are VERY subjective and even though prices look like they have broken the TL, it's only MY TL it has broken. And also, breaking the TL with a false break seems to be a habit with this pair so far. So I am not making anything of it for now.

If prices do continue up, there is also a POTENTIAL crab waiting to be completed. Though I am doubting it will come into play.

I am looking SHORT on this pair till it completes the POTENTIAL butterfly below. Then I will be thinking LONG for a brief retrace back up as per my DAILY chart . Then looking for a STEEP drop down again to retest those April lows. For now, where prices are now looks like a good place to take another shot at a SHORT play.

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selling short as well
Thanks for this posting very interesting analyses I will be following and waiting for pull back for long position.
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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