GBPUSD is not different. It is possible that the recent bottom formed in April could be significant one resulting in trend change or may be just an intermediate low. Also as it was severally oversold exasperated by uncertainties associated with the UK lection which resolved very cleanly it benefited from lifting of that uncertainty.
However at current level it could offer opportunity to short with retracement or retest of the low in prospect.
1. Weekly chart shows that it has approach the and of the entire decline from July 2014 which could offer resistance See chart below
2. Since the low in April it appears to have abc with price having just poked above the previous resistance possibly triggering stops.
3. At a level with several Fib extensions and projections offering confluence.
4. Accompanied by clear divergence.
5. Possible decline to 1.51 -1.50 would feasible in case of retracement or might continue all the way to retest the April low.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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However regarding the price stalling if you look it it probably a bull flag, so am waiting for final poke up before actual reversal. This is supported by the fact that the wave C on my chart still has 5th wave to develop. But in term of price zone there is very limited upside.
So will follow keenly and thank you for sharing your analysis. I appreciate it.
I labeled them with possible waves. Looks like we may have just completed part of a 3rd wave extension down, and are now in a large correction which is starting with what appears to be a :3. Due to the harmonic patterns that are forming, ie. a shark, crab and butterfly, I think that there is a good chance that we get a c failure flat and that this is a long-term high. It's difficult to determine but it definitely at the least seems like we're peaking out here and are going to get a big correction down before continuing up anymore to complete this correction.
I have tried to read up on Neely's approach but find that rather difficult for some reason. So I don't quite follow your labels.
Also it seem from your last chart that the move of the April low as a zizgzag is labelled differently though still coming to similar conclusion ie this cycle should end soon and at least make partial retrace.
Secondly I note you have attempted to label 5 wave decline from July 2014. This has proved to be very difficult and I suspect we do not have 5 wave move. It is probably a double zigzag and it would more likely fit the larger counts with move from 2009 low. But for now for this trade it is not relevant.
Looking back into it, you're probably right. The first wave down from July 2014 has too much momentum relative to the rest of the pattern. I am having trouble figuring out how this structure could fit into a double zigzag though. The best count I came up with is a single zigzag. Maybe you can find a better count that fits this structure? I'm still kinda leaning towards and extension but i'll have to look at the bigger count as well. That's a job for another night tho.
It looks pretty clear on this chart that from Oct 27 to April 13th that move is impulsive. Wave 4 also meets all the minimum requirements and fits into the time-target nicely. That's what's really throwing me off here and making me think this is an extension because on the last count I just posted wave seems kinda small in time and price relatively.