The pair missed touching the 0.7639 retrace level by a whisker Wednesday … resonable level to clock a reversal. The wave count I'm not 100% happy with but the very best I can do currently to make structural sense of a bit of a mess.
Scenario 1: the pair tucks itself down into a small pre FOMC, maybe touching down on 1.483, historically significant price level, as the market is reluctant to sell the dollar pre FOMC 16th December, and we can rearrange the minor a-b-c's blah … & shunt the end of the wave over to the right a little … prior to big 'events' things do tend to coil into triangles ...
Scenario 2: the pair has alrady completed the wave, and is waiting for the NFP today, and the markets have already decided sub- / semi- conciously the Fed will not be raising rates this year.
Scenario 3: my analysis is way off and something else might happen - e.g the five wave structure I've labeled C (circled) as the 3rd wave of B is in fact a lead diagonal.
Should it be correct and there is a significant break out to the upside, then the 0.618 equivalent to wave A would be a significant level at 1.573
In that the structure bears most similaity to a flat, 1.625x, of equal length to wave A (caps) seems a reasonable target
The wave type is not quite text book perfect, but should, I hope, end up, in sum A-B-C, like wave a (circled) of B, where the (b) wave reaches the 0.7639 and the (c) wave is a little over the length of wave (a), the 3-3-5 structure is retained and it forms a slightly wonky flat.
Fundamentals: a note – if the Fed don't raise rates, & the BoE following suit indicate at the top of this expected C wave 'neither will we' Sterling may fall as a bubble of hope / expectation is burst.
Indicators: GBPJPY , GBPAUD , GBPNZD and this pair all show that divergence in the , which suggests Sterling is due for an upward thrust
DISCLAIMER: this is merely a view at this point in time, subject to alteration / improvement, and unless you happen to enjoy losing shed loads of money please manage risk etc. as if scenario 3 were possible, i.e all this is completely wrong.
While Elliott Wave Internationals tutorial covers Fibonacci, there are a couple of good quick reference sites - one of the best is http://prognosis.nl/support/faq/principle/index.html
A second one is http://proelliottwave.com/free-elliott-wave-resources/elliott-wave-principle-basics/ ... Although this has some mistakes on it as far as I can make out, e.g on the Regular Flat it shows the c wave as having 3 not 5 waves as is my understanding. But, it is good at showing the normal and 'allowable' fib levels e.g a wave 4 normally retraces 0.236, more often 0.382 of wave 3 but it can retraces 0.5 or 0.618
Like most things it's a good guide but it doesn't always work.
It seems GU correction is not one yet. None the less, an impulse wave up is due soon. I guess we have to wait for the B (on a higher degree) wave to end.
You're right about the 3 waves on a C wave. But I learned my stuff @ elliottwave.com and it has corrective wave combinations, for example combos of flats, zigzags, triangles. Complex combos include double threes and triple threes, hence my interpretation of this correction.
I usually dont use Fibs to count waves but to determine SL and TP. Counting with fibs - food for thought I guess.
Thanks for the links and the tips btw.