Two possible long term scenarios for GBP/USD.
In the first scenario, price action would grind its way up to the 61.8%
retracement level at 1.3929 (measured from 1.4377 to
1.3204). Once there a possible bearish 2618 trade could
emerge and price would reach down to the 1.2849 level,
which of course is the 61.8% retracement level from 1.1905
to 1.4377.
(The drop from 1.3929 to 1.2849 is length of the measured
move from 1.4377 to 1.3204).
With plenty of support at the 1.2849 level, price can take
aim at the 1.5000/20 level, which is reached by the length
of the measured move from 1.1905 to 1.4377.
Scenario 2
The second scenario see's price reaching the Brexit high
at 1.5000/20 a bit quicker and more directly. If you
measure the Fibonacci retracement from the first
resistance to support level at 1.2589 to 1.4377, you will
see that price has found a bit of support already at the
61.8% retracement level at 1.3272. In addition, note that
the 100SMA is below price and now acting as support,
thus, price action to the downside will be sluggish
because of the supportive 100SMA.
Depending from where you draw the Fibonacci
retracement, price may be on its way to the 1.5000 levels
either sooner or later. Though a break and close above
1.3657 as well as sustaining above it, would in my opinion
qualify as a bullish trend continuation targeting the 1.5000
level.
Happy trading
In the first scenario, price action would grind its way up to the 61.8%
retracement level at 1.3929 (measured from 1.4377 to
1.3204). Once there a possible bearish 2618 trade could
emerge and price would reach down to the 1.2849 level,
which of course is the 61.8% retracement level from 1.1905
to 1.4377.
(The drop from 1.3929 to 1.2849 is length of the measured
move from 1.4377 to 1.3204).
With plenty of support at the 1.2849 level, price can take
aim at the 1.5000/20 level, which is reached by the length
of the measured move from 1.1905 to 1.4377.
Scenario 2
The second scenario see's price reaching the Brexit high
at 1.5000/20 a bit quicker and more directly. If you
measure the Fibonacci retracement from the first
resistance to support level at 1.2589 to 1.4377, you will
see that price has found a bit of support already at the
61.8% retracement level at 1.3272. In addition, note that
the 100SMA is below price and now acting as support,
thus, price action to the downside will be sluggish
because of the supportive 100SMA.
Depending from where you draw the Fibonacci
retracement, price may be on its way to the 1.5000 levels
either sooner or later. Though a break and close above
1.3657 as well as sustaining above it, would in my opinion
qualify as a bullish trend continuation targeting the 1.5000
level.
Happy trading