The Cable appears to be rising - a long trade for the patient?

This one is an interesting case. The cable has been down for a long time and its volatility skyrocketed recently. The current up move although steady, has many of the properties of a retracement. It is following a nice and tempered channel, without many attempts to continue the previous down trend. It has also unequivocally got out, in quite vigorous terms, from the prior down channel. Now is it a retracement or a new trend? We are currently near the top of the up channel, so it does not seem like there is a lot of room for going up currently. On the other hand there is no visible support region which may very well complicate matters. Nonetheless due to the steadfast nature of the move, and the current strength of momentum, it is difficult to sustain a bearish stance.

To get a sense of possible support the 50MA has been drawn, as in this time frame (4H) it has shown some descriptive power over price. Very seldom it has been crossed without some fight, so if price goes south it may stall or rebound from there Therefore the region around the 50MA will be my bottom level, and I'll go, as usual, to a trade with a quite nice risk/reward ratio of 1/2 or thereabouts.