UK is Still Careening Towards A No Deal Brexit
A few points to keep track of before the potential final vote on May's deal.
First, whats being voted on is entirely different from previous votes. The details are complicated, but essentially the previous failed votes are now broken up into two main sections (which is apparently contrary to previous UK laws passed, but whatever) and the EU asserted that it would only grant an extension if one of those two parts (the Withdrawal Agreement) is passed. The Political Declaration is less important and can be renegotiated later.
Second, if she doesn't get it passed, then the likelihood of a no deal Brexit will be much more priced into cable than previously. Traders are already seeing this with yesterday's deep losses which was the worst single day loss since December 10th 2018. We can also see the shift in the trend from the sheer number of exponential moving averages edging above the price of the pair.
Third, although May not getting her deal passed would be quite negative for financial markets (which is somewhat more expected at this point despite her offering her premiership for her passing her deal) this does not automatically mean the UK will leave the EU without a deal. In fact, I would even argue that without passing a deal the two most likely options then become either an extension of the April 12 deadline to May-June or steps will be taken to progress towards not leaving the EU altogether.
Fourth, what happens if (probably when) May loses Friday's vote is up in the air. She could then resign, or there could be another vote of no confidence, or there could be another renegotiated process with the EU, or she could try to get the vote passed again, or...you get the picture. Its really up in the air what happens after Friday, clearly this whole process is a mess and quite confusing, and seemingly the desires of the EU, of May's government, and of the House of Commons differ so significantly that even after almost three years of this whole process we still do not know if, when, or on what terms the UK would leave the EU.
If May's vote fails, it has been suggested that she could simply aim for a customs union then and in fact this was the least unpopular indicative vote in the HoC yesterday. Because of this, it likely remains the most likely deal that could pass HoC. In this case, it seems that an extension beyond April 12 will be required and the EU will probably hold an emergency meeting after Friday if her vote fails.
If her vote doesn't fail, then its all said and done. The UK would leave the EU on April 12. But don't expect such an anti-climactic outcome to come to fruition in this real life political drama. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
First, whats being voted on is entirely different from previous votes. The details are complicated, but essentially the previous failed votes are now broken up into two main sections (which is apparently contrary to previous UK laws passed, but whatever) and the EU asserted that it would only grant an extension if one of those two parts (the Withdrawal Agreement) is passed. The Political Declaration is less important and can be renegotiated later.
Second, if she doesn't get it passed, then the likelihood of a no deal Brexit will be much more priced into cable than previously. Traders are already seeing this with yesterday's deep losses which was the worst single day loss since December 10th 2018. We can also see the shift in the trend from the sheer number of exponential moving averages edging above the price of the pair.
Third, although May not getting her deal passed would be quite negative for financial markets (which is somewhat more expected at this point despite her offering her premiership for her passing her deal) this does not automatically mean the UK will leave the EU without a deal. In fact, I would even argue that without passing a deal the two most likely options then become either an extension of the April 12 deadline to May-June or steps will be taken to progress towards not leaving the EU altogether.
Fourth, what happens if (probably when) May loses Friday's vote is up in the air. She could then resign, or there could be another vote of no confidence, or there could be another renegotiated process with the EU, or she could try to get the vote passed again, or...you get the picture. Its really up in the air what happens after Friday, clearly this whole process is a mess and quite confusing, and seemingly the desires of the EU, of May's government, and of the House of Commons differ so significantly that even after almost three years of this whole process we still do not know if, when, or on what terms the UK would leave the EU.
If May's vote fails, it has been suggested that she could simply aim for a customs union then and in fact this was the least unpopular indicative vote in the HoC yesterday. Because of this, it likely remains the most likely deal that could pass HoC. In this case, it seems that an extension beyond April 12 will be required and the EU will probably hold an emergency meeting after Friday if her vote fails.
If her vote doesn't fail, then its all said and done. The UK would leave the EU on April 12. But don't expect such an anti-climactic outcome to come to fruition in this real life political drama. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
