ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Long

Pending Long GBP/USD in 1.669X region

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
197 20 0
WARNING: Unless you've been scalping this upward channel, which at the maximum could've yielded between 500-700 pips; this is a risky play considering the number of times that this trend line has been tested. I personally scalped about 300 pips out of this channel so far, so I can afford the risk.

Wait for price to hit the trend line in the 1.669X region for a possible long entry.
Consider exiting if price closes below the trend line .
Target 1: 1.682X region (February high)
Target 2: 1.7000 (highly doubt we'll get there on this attempt, it'll probably come back down for another long opportunity before going back up.

Contingency plan: Even if the trend line doesn't hold, the entire 1.66-1.67 is a solid buy zone for position traders. However, I'd wait for the lower end to try going long again.

Possible support levels below:
1.664X
1.661X
1.66 (BIG LEVEL)
1.658X
Update: First entry level has just been hit (1.669X), if the trend line breaks, refer to the possible support levels in my original post.
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Update: Trend line has been broken, I got stopped out at 6675. Will be watching support levels for re-entry.
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Possible new trend line:

GBPUSD Possible Trend Line?
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Trying a long here at 1.6655, same size as the first entry that got stopped out, only 10% of position. All my big orders at in the 1.66XX/1.658X region.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Update: Trend line didn't hold, which is fine since I was waiting for price to continue dropping to lower support levels anyways. I filled some more at 1.6625. I currently have 30% of my position filled with an avg price of 1.6635.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Here's why I filled some longs at 1.6625. GBP/USD hourly demand zones:

GBPUSD Hourly Demand Zones
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Unconfirmed Potential Bullish Flag:

Unconfirmed Potential Bullish Flag


For the record, I'm still waiting for lower support levels to fill the rest of my long position.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Traditional way to draw bullish flag:

Traditional way to draw bullish flag
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
In regards to my "I don't see it going below 1.6550" comment below, this chart is the reason why. Top trend line is drawn for obvious reasons, parallel to the bottom. Projected bounce point is 1.6550. Although.... I guess it could drop below it seeing as how the 50% fib level is at 1.65363
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Price hit a low of 1.65674, which is 17.4 pips off from my 1.6550 level. If bulls can maintain momentum and push this up from here (currently at 1.6615), then it looks like this bullish flag is in motion.
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Update: I have a full position on GBP/USD now, the rest of it filled at 1.6600 (the BIG LEVEL that I mentioned in my original post), my average price is now 1.6610.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Based on consolidation at the low 1.66XX region, I suspect price will be making a big move soon. Which direction? I have no idea, hopefully up and in my favor. If it does go down, I don't see it going below 1.6550, which is well above my SL (!00 pips). So I'm not really worried about this trade considering price is currently hovering above my average price.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Depending on how GBP/USD reacts to the up side (assuming we a) get out of this consolidation and b) break upwards) then I may have to adjust my targets to the low 1.67XX region instead of the previous 1.68XX region
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Something to consider, EUR/USD is dragging up GBP/USD right now. Depending on who's in the driver seat, if/when EUR/USD decides to drop, it may drag down GBP/USD with it, so my targets may not be reached.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
I'm going to start scaling out of my longs around 1.67 to free up margin so that I can manage the other pairs I'm watching.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
e.g., I'd rather have 2 or 3 big positions, then to have 10 small ones.
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Update: I started unloading some longs already.
10% at 1.6655 closed at 1.6670 = +15 pips
20% at 1.6625 closed at 1.6680 = +55 pips
Still holding 70% of my position from 1.6600
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Not liking the sluggish movement here, price is stalling. Got out of another 20% from 1.6600 at 1.6680 = +80 pips. Still holding 50% of my position from 1.6600.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Just woke up from my nap, I see GBP/USD hit the low 1.67XX region. I did mention yesterday that "I may have to adjust my targets to the low 1.67XX region instead of the previous 1.68XX region". I had set my remaining position to TP at 1.6710, so that's +110 pips on the remaining 50%. This trade is now considered finished, especially since price got rejected up there.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
For the record, my GBP/USD position was taken prior to opening the new forex account, so these trades won't be on myfxbook.
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