Technican analysis says daily went below signal line, is falling and is convergent with the price, and on DMI , DI+ went below , signaling the momentum is done and is weakening.
More importantly, is the idea of a BREXIT that comes in mind.
What effect would a BREXIT have?
As shown in this article:
"If either a ‘Brexit’ or a ‘Grexit were to occur, the Pound Sterling or the Euro exchange rates would be likely to sink and may remain vulnerable for some time—especially if economic growth struggles in the fallout. "
Meaning both euro and pound would go down. Who profits the most? The US dollar .
But if economic growth continues in both UK and EU, these events will culminate in a stronger currency.
Since lately UK data showed signals last week and current situation in uk is not so good, I think a short position with a target to 1.53 in the next 2 weeks is good.
If it breaks below 50 day , just below 1.53, this could go all the way to 1.50.
Last time dollar was strong, GBPUSD went to 1.46. Can we see 1.40 in the next couple of months?