GBPUSD has caught my eye recently. Today's high is an interesting juncture where multiple wave counts suggest at least a 200 pip sell off. In light of the fundamental news out of UK and the recent Sterling strength, this is a tough one to swallow. No real oscillator divergence is showing up yet.
However, in sticking to the technicals on the chart, each of the 3 scenarios listed on the chart point to some type of fall. IF prices get to 1.5650, then we'll begin to eliminate and focus more on some counts versus others.
One big concern I have that is keeping me from entering in the trade right now is sentiment. The current SSI reading shows -1.3. Its not a huge sentiment reading, but this figure has been growing more negative meaning traders are piling into short trades. I typically like to align opposite the general trader. However, the reading is muted which could be indicative of a "B" wave.
The expanded flat view also lines up with my previous GBPJPY post which explains the difficulty of it passing through the false breakout zone.
For those Elliott Waver's, I would appreciate your views and what your possibilities are.
they jwag..nice chart..do you think maybe green circle 1 and green circle 2 look like a', b' waves witrh green circle 3 as a cwave ??(w)
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
Yes, Rick. I didn't get into that detail on the alternate.
When you look at the orange alternate, "alt: b" would be exactly that 3 wave move you suggest. Wave c = 2.618 * wave a (see small red text on chart). I'm cautious about c waves being 2.618 * a, but either way, even if it sells off to the 1.618, still offers a couple hundred pips of potential.
Thank you for the comment and great catch!
rbower
⋅
Great tag!
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
The June 18-24 sell off contains several wave relationships that match up well to an impulse. So we'll solidify it as a 5 wave affair down.
June 24-June 29 is clearly 3 waves.
The drop since June 29 is containing a couple of wave relationships that match up to an impulse. Does this extend lower or not is the question. It appears that the 1.5450 zone will likely support prices.
Of the 3 higher probability scenarios depicted in the original chart, scenario #2 is the higher probability one at this point. Scenario #3 is next. Scenario #1 is being de-emphasized because it lacks alternation with circle 'i'
I have a chart showing internals based on scenario #2 in the original post. Let's see what happens between 1.5450-1.5550
IvanLabrie
⋅
This lines up with my take on it.
Expanded flat scenario has merit, but I'm not 100% sure just yet. I'm cautiously bullish on it.
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
The expanded flat is #2 on the new post I'm working on for GBPUSD and suggests a deeper sell off.
The exp flat scenario lines up with with the de-emphasized #4 from today's EURUSD post. If we get a relentless sell off on Sunday, those counts get elevated.
Like you, I'm cautiously bullish going into the referendum vote and into early next week. But that can change if a relentless sell off ensues. Thank you for the chart Ivan! An updated GBPUSD post is coming shortly.
IvanLabrie
⋅
I still think gbpusd could be forming a larger double zigzag or another sharp rally variation, but don't think DXY has topped for now. Maybe later this year.
Thanks, and have a great weekend.
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
Nice - we'll keep an eye out for it!
Its hard to believe a year ago we were getting excited about 10 pip moves because the market was dull. What a difference a year makes.
Take care.
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
I just updated EURUSD with an expanded flat as the preferred count. We'll keep an eye on how the GBPUSD behaves near 1.5650 to see if it develops into an expanded flat too. The GBPUSD expanded flat would indicate a much deeper sell off as the chart above notes.
EURUSD post noted below:
DavidRoberts
⋅
Working well so far! Resisting the urge to move my stop closer!