MacroView_Research

The Great Brex-acre of 2016

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
The Brexit vote was a done deal, or at least the markets thought so. After watching risk assets climb for an outcome to close to be a sure thing, we really can't expect anything else to happen then:

$GBPUSD falling over 10 percent at the lows, hitting a 30-year low. Was the move dramatic? Yes, but it wasn't unexpected. There are a few factors traders must take into account. First, markets relied on an assumption of a no contest vote as skewed bookie odds and flawed polls proclaimed leading into yesterday's historic vote.

The bookie odds were skewed in the favor of the side baring the most money (remain), while there were far more bets of a Brexit. Then, the polls were all over the place, and some had margin of errors so high they were useless.

Secondarily, the move in the currency was so dramatic over the course of the last week. Even if markets chalked up the six-month decline in Sterling as "fear" of a Brexit, to think it is reasonable to gain all that back in a week was dangerous. Moreover, due to brokers increasing margin requirements, the market was illiquid.

I warned that the price action was becoming far too extended and markets were setting itself for a risk-off event (and I was mocked) here:

https://twitter.com/Lemieux_26/status/745856000914259969

https://twitter.com/Lemieux_26/status/746077072255234048

To round the night off, the S&P 500             futures fell over 106 points at its low to trigger the circuit breaker. Here is a chart I posted which pointed out the long-standing supply zone SPY             just can't break through:

https://twitter.com/Lemieux_26/status/745231198843248641

The fact that Netherlands, France and Italy             now want their own referendum vote, sentiment and the lack of earnings is not shaping up for U.S. equities .

European banks collapsed over 15 percent. Once again, here is a chart which suggested more downside was to come (and it did):

https://twitter.com/Lemieux_26/status/745232381150367745

Gold             had a great day with intraday gains nearing $100 as traders pile into safety. For those that still don't understand the value of gold             , the pound equivalent soared on a rate of change basis as the Sterling cratered.

As Wall Street frantically buys the dip, MacroView positioned long VXX             , UGL             and TLT             while shorting FXB             SPY             and FEZ.

For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us.

Have a good weekend!

Chris

Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!

Follow MacroView CoFounders on TWTR             @Lemieux_26 and @EconomicHedge
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