When drilling down into the hourly, an interesting set of circumstances arise. To start with, the hourly structure has now been violated through a breakout of 1.3020 following the exhaustion of sellers to push beyond 1.2920 in the Asian hours (they failed to extend the magnitude of the previous swing either). The recovery has also come in conjunction with increasing as highlighted ( ). However, right overhead, a wall of orders in the form of Oct 1st (Point of Control) is so far preventing further gains, increasing the chances of a potential rotational market to form, especially ahead of the US NFP release.
Judging by the negative cues via the DXY & yield spread, engaging as sellers at the appears a sensible low-risk strategy to at least make it far enough to move to breakeven. If the price continues to retrace, be wary of engaging in buy-side action in the middle of the possible range (confirmed on a retest and hold of 1.12920) as the breakout of the structure has been far from commanding. Once the US NFP is out of the way, re-assess the new structure shaping up.
Note: Each scenario has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs or trading plan. Before acting on any information or advice, you should consider the appropriateness of it having regard to your circumstances. Please read our Financial Services Guide and current offer document which is available to be downloaded from http://www.globalprime.com.au or hard copies may be sent by contacting us on the details provided on this website.
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