Night_Trader
Short

Cypher sell comming up in 4H chart.

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
1118 15 3
Cypher (blue) sell with 3 targets. Last target at Gartley (green) completion.
Ryan Tyler
3 years ago
I think we will revisit A zone again
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Night_Trader PRO Ryan Tyler
3 years ago
Me too. The only question is, if we go to D first or not.
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Ryan Tyler Night_Trader
3 years ago
Yeah. Current Candles looks bullish. Let's see where to from here
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PatStale
3 years ago
I would have chosen X as the previous Low.
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Night_Trader PRO PatStale
3 years ago
What is the difference there? For this Cypher (blue) trade the green pattern is of interest only as a target
And for a potential long trade with Gartley completion at D the symmetry of AB=CD is more important in my opinion.
And we do not know yet where point C will be.
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RedStaR
3 years ago
Your patterns seem a bit out-of-sync. Gartley needs a completion at at least a 78.6, and an AB retracement of 61.8

The cypher has it's BC leg extended too far down for it to be valid, although it may pass as a 5-0 or shark pattern. Put out the C point a bit further up on the same level as "A" and you might have valid scheme.

Always look at the bigger time-frames, since patterns there usually have the best odds of completing properly. Always check for bearish patterns in an uptrend for reversal entries, and vice versa.

I've taken your chart and did some modifications, I've drawn a much simpler way to approach ratio trading.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/W2bR4t78/#

snapshot


Hope this helps
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Night_Trader PRO RedStaR
3 years ago
Quote: "Hope this helps"

First of all I actually did not ask for your "help" !
In fact I find your chart rather confusing.

Than the Cypher pattern is valid, because there was no candle close beyond 1.414 extension!

For the Gartley pattern your numbers only refer to Scott Carney s definition of the Gartley pattern . But Carney is not the inventor of the Gartley pattern ! But if you need to use Carney s Gartley definition to be happy, simply rename my target area as an AB=CD pattern completion.

A 5-0 or Shark pattern are not obvious to me on this chart at the moment.

So please feel free to post your own chart analysis on tradingview.com but do not use my posts to promote it !!
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RedStaR Night_Trader
3 years ago
I did not intend my review of your chart to be insulting, this is your prediction and it will stay that way.

I was only trying to help, as I saw some mistakes on drawing out the patterns.

With regards to your cypher pattern, generally ratios are drawn back and forth from swing highs and lows. Candle closes depends entirely on time frames that you are viewing, and provide little value outside of price action and volatility.

If you were to draw the third leg extension to the bottom candle (as you already have) it would give a retracement of almost 250% which is not valid. If would however choose to draw the pattern on candle closes, it still leaves it just above 200% on the 30-Aug candle. An bullish AB-CD however is a bit more plausible in this case.

As for the "Gartley pattern", I fail to see how AC should be 0.781, it seems arbitrary in nature, unless used in conjunction with other tools to confirm this position. Also XB @ 56 and XD @ 68 have no solid validation, as far as I'm aware of harmonic trading.

I've already published the 'modified chart' that I made especially for my previous post, and then decided to post it anyway, with no prior planning to do so, simply out of preventing a waste of effort.

Feel free to discuss.
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Night_Trader PRO RedStaR
3 years ago
We are arguing here just about names. You are defining the Gartley pattern strictly after Scott Carney s definition ! And I do not ! For me the most important thing in the Gartley is an XA leg and an AB=CD. This is what Gartley wrote about in his book. Scott Carney defined "his" Gartley pattern in a much stricter form. But there are other "Gartley" definitions from others as well, because Gartley himself was not that specific.
Therefore I already said that you should just replace the term "Gartley" with AB=CD in this case. I have no problem with that.
Also please have in mind, that this post was about the Cypher pattern. For the green (Gartley or AB=CD) pattern we still do not have point C !
As for candle closes etc. they depend on the timeframe, but for me they still have a value! I did not choose the 4 H timeframe over the daily randomly. There is always a degree of discretion in these things ! Trading is not an exact science !
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RedStaR Night_Trader
3 years ago
Your AB=CD pattern of the 'gartley' still seems plausible, but you cannot define that as a gartley pattern in my opinion for numerous reasons. An AB=CD pattern is better confirmed when fitting inside a confluent pattern, whether that be gartley, bat, butterfly, cypher, crab or dragon. With that said, your AB=CD target is not confluent with the 78.6 XA retracement, giving you a possible, albeit weak, support on where the trend would end.

This is why using more than one pattern pattern, in conjunction with several other technical over-bought/over-sold and fundamental drivers is the most effective way of getting the best odds of entries and exits.

Now going back to your chart, a symmetrical AB-CD pattern is always an option, but one of many, many more. If anything the CD extension could be a price extension of 1.27, 1.618, 1.5, 2.24 or 2.618. Not only that, but also a time extension of the same ratios.

So how do we know which pattern will unfold? Improve your odds with confluence.

I could draw at least 20 valid patterns on that chart alone, yet you chose only one, a time symmetrical AB-CD pattern with a 1.27 extension.

Your cypher pattern is arbitrary, the right leg is more than 200% below XA, and if it does reverse at the 78.6, that would be due to the BC retracement of the big AB-CD, not because of a bearish 'cypher'.

The gartley pattern is also invalid since 56.7 and 68..7 are also arbitrary numbers.

So far, the only pattern still on course in the chart as of this post is the bigger AB-CD, which you could have just drawn out without any of the four colored triangles. It just might be enough to signal a reversal, but on the basis of relying on only one possible pattern, unlikely.
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Night_Trader PRO RedStaR
3 years ago
Ok let s stop this pointless discussion. As I already said, feel free to post your own charts. But please stop trying to educate me here. There is absolutely nothing new for me in what you said, and I consider a lot of it as not relevant to me.
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i dont know how u guys do the cypher thing, but it's awesome, i like it
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Night_Trader PRO ebayaccount.nguyen
3 years ago
I think the Cypher pattern was invented by Akil Stokes (perhaps together with Jason Stapleton). Basically you have a retracement to the .382 level and then a break of the low with prices running to the 1.272 level. After that you have a retracement back up to the .786 level of the whole first move (down to the 1.272). Price is expected to turn at the completion at the .786 level.
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Night_Trader PRO Night_Trader
3 years ago
Just to clarify any confusion: The Cypher pattern on this chart is represented by the blue triangles. The green triangles have nothing to do with it !! I just drew them in to show a possible 3rd target area.
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T1 hit ! :-)
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