First of all, I don't know why, but here on Tradingview chart one candle is missing: either friday candle is missing, or Friday's candle is labelled with today date and then today candle is missing. I think second one.
For this reason, after this post goes out here and to Twitter, I will add same chart from another system on Twitter to see the reality.
- setup is neutral: Price in the Kumo + weak Tenkan/Kijun. Price is floating around 1,4250 longer term equilibrium represented by Senkou B line. Average lines are also flat, not really pointing anywhere.
- EWO is hovering around zero level: indecision
- ATR is relatively high, this means increased and choppy market. Always use this data when you calculate position size! (build in the always changing into your risk management system)
- Heikin-Ashi candles (as I said there should be two red correctly, instead of one) are , but momentum started to decrease again at Kijun Sen. You will see it better on the other chart via Twitter
In case Kijun Sen holds, and Price can't make a lower low, the mega market will start to unwind some of its short positionning, which means the next breakout attempt above 1,44 can be succesful. If a breakout happens in coming days, so well before Brexit vote, we will still have 1,4650-1,47 above, so probably rice will resist that first. This can be probably our initial target. Then we'll see how market acts.
I accumulated a bit (1/3 unit only) today ard 1,4225. I bought some 1,46 Call options too.
Stop is at lower red line -> 1,4120
I know, there's Brexit. Honestly? Who the hell cares??? No one knows, how much of that risk has already been priced in! No one really knows, what is the real risk! No one knows how big already is the bet (leveraged short) against GBP!
Do you know what I think? I think the same as before the UK elections last year. Regardless of the outcome of Brexit vote, market will eventually go up. Why? Because either they exit or they don't, after the vote, this uncertanbity factor will fall out. There will be short term certanity. Obviously this is a beliefe, and while I may get biased on beliefes, I do not trade based on these feelings. I trade based on Price action and signals. For sure I am looking for long entry only, as I think the pain for market would be the way up. But I enter longs only when I have the proper high probability signal.