gb10y-us10y yield spread sagging a little but nothing wildly differing from current spot rate.
blue = range, break and hold below and revisit m1 support, if find support there then looking for retest of the rejected resistance. More likely scenario if brexit legal case has legs + dollar has another run. If extremes of either scenario could see dip below m1, if past grey extended support then could see larger downside (1.2762+) as naked lvl
If can break topside bullish towards a retest of rejected res, limits above range once break and hold for retest of top range. Bull threat of brexit legal headlines and dollar run
Trade closed: target reached
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slightly divergent version of scenario 2. Found support earlier than m1 sup and retook range before heading topside range + breakout to retest and break rejected res. Probably going to dillydally into the weekend, but given a favorable open looking for a push to 1.2977
long data run for gbp on friday 9th and FOMC on weds 7th + USD services PMI on monday
TCG24
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meanwhile looking for catchy knife moments off headlines, around 1% aggressive bull moves (mainly characterized by vastly more bull candles with little let off for selling) on 5m within 20 bars seems to have an avg pullback of 0.51% in sept. over a similar timeframe (23 bars). Full retracement within a short period rarely seen, though.
Bearish moves of -0.8 (23 bars) seem to generate avg pullback of 0.56% (11 bars) in sept, same concept in reverse. RSI should be balls deep into <30 or >70 respectively. With avg being 73 & 23 @ peak of impulse
TCG24
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only half hearted sept data though, need bigger dataset from a longer backtest. + human run, not machine so moves picked off aggressiveness by eye not by a defined empirical measure. around 20 moves picked. Needs to break market structure to get in on the retrace as trigger // RSI gives an idea when the steam is running out
TCG24
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gb10y-us10y yield spread sagging a little but nothing wildly differing from current spot rate.
blue = range, break and hold below and revisit m1 support, if find support there then looking for retest of the rejected resistance. More likely scenario if brexit legal case has legs + dollar has another run. If extremes of either scenario could see dip below m1, if past grey extended support then could see larger downside (1.2762+) as naked lvl
If can break topside bullish towards a retest of rejected res, limits above range once break and hold for retest of top range. Bull threat of brexit legal headlines and dollar run
long data run for gbp on friday 9th and FOMC on weds 7th + USD services PMI on monday