LewisGlasgow

Ethereum - Harmonic Outlook

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Traders, I advise you to read this entire post to gain a better understanding of what I'm looking at.

It's been a while since my last trading position on ETH, back in August price completed a valid bearish bat pattern (shown on the chart) which was followed by a decline of almost 50% in two weeks.

Taking the time to reflect on Ethereum's situation from a technical standpoint the future direction is now becoming far clearer.

It has been struggling to break the $300 range for sometime now but a move above $400 is on the horizon.

Today I'm going to break down every aspect of the chart and explain in detail what I feel is happening from a technical perspective.

We're on the 4h chart with ETH/USD.

1. Bearish bat


The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below.
B: 0.382 - 0.50
C: 0.382 - 0.886
D: 1.618 - 2.618
Final X to D: 0.886

A closer look on the 4h chart at my previous pattern, take profit levels 1 & 2 were achieved in a relatively short time period.

2. Daily price structure


Right now price is trading within a small zone, between a minor resistance and newly formed support trenldine, which aligns with levels A & C of the bearish butterfly .

3. Bearish Butterfly


The measurements for a valid butterfly pattern are detailed below.
B: 0.786
C: 0.382 - 0.886
D: 1.618 - 2.24
X to D: 1.272

It's not uncommon for harmonic patterns to occur one after another, especially with the previous pattern securing a nice return.

Currently price is completing the C to D leg of this structure and I estimate the pattern will complete on the 30th of November based on my measurement rules shown below.


The amount of time it takes price to form X to B is the projection for B to D.

Now remember, this is not certain... There will be many times when patterns take 2x longer to complete and still result in a profit.

I am only using my common principles to accurately determine the completion of the pattern.

4. Current price action


I would focus on the basics as of right now, I'm looking for a break of minor resistance and the support trendline to hold in order for the bearish butterfly to complete.

In the near future I will update this idea with my thoughts on Ethereum .

If we experienced a situation where the following happened.


It would still be a valid setup, as long as the C point does not exceed 0.886 and the lower trendline support is in tact.

If the bearish butterfly pattern completes I will let everyone know if it is a good area to short or close long positions, what we may find it the future is price pushes to around $520 at a 1.618 extension .

I hope this post has been helpful, feel free to leave a comment below.
Comment: Extra analysis further indicating a move towards $400.


All main M and W type structures should all carry the qualities of a standard AB=CD.

This formation using the 0.50 C point indicates potential 2.0 which is the reciprocal ratio.

If price breaks and closes above resistance at B, this would open up an AB=CD BAMM trading opportunity.

Final target would be $450 upon completion of the bearish butterfly.
Comment: Price closed above B, keep an eye on price action for a move to $400.
Comment: Expecting price to hit $450 within the next 10 days, I will update further if I see this changing.
Comment: $400 :) I’ll be updating shortly.
Comment: Price broke the high at $412, the bearish butterfly will complete soon.


More updates to follow.
Comment: $440, pattern will complete at $450, technical updates to follow.

Well done to those who held!
Comment: I'm looking at $520 for a short term decline, keep an eye on price action.
Comment: $520 as predicted, I’ll be looking for more opportunities to go long in the near future.
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Comments

Any update for eth sir ?
+2 Reply
Far better than your Stellar analysis back then...Thumbs up for that!
+1 Reply
LewisGlasgow maurice79
@maurice79, I appreciate that, thanks!
Reply
Lewis what you think now about ETH? We start raid to $1000+ ?
Reply
Amazing TA, Gj Glasgow!
Reply
Great job Lewis. I didn't see the 520 call earlier and had a target of 550. Next time.
Reply
@JC350402, always another one coming :) thanks!
Reply
great job !
Reply
LewisGlasgow mcgough_max
@mcgough_max, thank you!
Reply
Great Call, you are not thinking this will go deeper ?
Reply
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