Possible head and shoulders pattern forming on the GPBUSD using the 4hr chart.
Im waiting for a candle to enter the 'termination zone'. However, it cannot touch the top (this would discount the pattern as a head n shoulders, and could signal trend continuation or a double top).
We also see these major levels of support that backs up my idea.
Once these two key rules have been met, await a signal- this could be a red candle. *I DO NOT CLAIM TO BE AN EXPERT. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
a head an shoulder pattern would bring the market right down to the 135.360 but do you really think the bears have it in them especially how the market is going but then again the bulls could look to attack those levels and let it ride down
Muizz_7
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so far what I'm seeing is that the bears are struggling it looks like every time they even try bring the price down a bit buyers enter the market as well as this I don't think the stimulus packaged has helped one bit, mainly because of the reaction it received, how I see it is that its very good short term, but medium to long term there are to many negatives over positive, huge factor being inflation. From here we are seeing buyers take advantage over this we also saw last week how the boe made clear negative points about negative interest rates which shot the pair up to all time highs since 2018
Jhol01
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@Muizz_7, hey I agree I think this is very much a short term opportunity that would take advantage of the period of consolidation we can expect before a big move. Im not sure if you have seen my update on this analysis. As I said this is a new strategy I wanted to test, but on further analysis of the market, taking into account the general bull trend, I think this is part of a much larger move to the upside.
As far as this head and shoulders pattern im still waiting for the market to push into the highlighted zone followed by a signal from the bears. I would not enter the trade unless I see this confirmation. As I haven't seen much in favour of this movement so far, Im thinking it would be better to hold off on this sell and wait for a breakout of the 1.374 level and buy into the trend continuation? What you think?
Appreciate the comment. Im still in the early days of learning and any feedback is always welcome:)
Muizz_7
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@Jhol01, This is amazing considering your in early days and I completely agree you can hold of a sell from that point because the market should definitely rally down from the head and shoulders pattern a bit i would say split your sell limit take one out around 50/60pips down where there’s a big keys level for buy, and hold your second trade incase the market breaks the next level which should see a 100+ pip move but this is great keep it up👍🏽
Jhol01
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@Muizz_7, Been messing around on a demo for a while but that was more like gambling. Ive been doing technical analysis like this for a few weeks? something like that. Just learning from YouTube and reading- keeping it simple and effective if I can. I still struggle to find the best entries for trades tho and then the psychological aspect and holding trades etc.
Do you think I should enter 2 sells (small lot size) with 2 TPs at 1.36343 and another at 1.353 or something in case it breaks the first level of resistance? I dont expect the market to push that low tho tbh
Im thinking of Buying once it breaks out of 1.374 but that could be later next week I think.
Appreciate the support.
Muizz_7
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@Jhol01, Keep going truss me you will get there eventually, don't take the bad trades to heart see it as a win, understand where you went wrong, in all honestly every trade you lose you have to see it as a learning point and keep the consistency it will pay of. You will eventually overcome that greed to trade everything you see, once you overcome that u will understand where your strategy works best and always stick to your strategy every trader trades differently , don't get trapped in the market be patient let the marker come to your setup and always always aim for like a 1/3 ratio this will help discipline you and eventually make you take smarter trades and how I see it is that even if you have a 50% win rate you will still end up with more pips and money. And yes take those trades but keep in mind the market can go anywhere at anytime look out for news candles etc. Id say once you hit the first TP you can move the stop loss at 20+ pips so there wont be a chance for you to lose money
Muizz_7
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@Jhol01, one more thing always stick to your strategy never follow trades you have to understand why you are taking those trades and work on it
Jhol01
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@Muizz_7 thanks man I appreciate the tips. Hopefully the market goes the way we want it to. All the best 👍