GBPUSD is really interesting here, with potential upside, together with the dollar, if Brexit ends up being a positive in the long term. It has a lot of shock value, and I'd like to play it like a contrarian once viable. Right now, I think we can have a repeat of the 2009 bottom, and a big sideways range, but first we could see a rapid short squeeze rally, and a retest of the Brexit day range, or even the top of that day's range. I'm looking to go long on dips, for the most part, and perhaps look to short EURGBP when viable, or long GBPCHF.
If we do get this scenario, we could see a massive rally shortly after the Brexit votes are out of the way. Lots of potential volatility revolving around French elections and other developments in Europe as well, so I'm watching with keen interest.
The daily chart has a downtrend and two potential targets, Range Movement is in a strong downtrend, but also suggests sentiment is at an extreme, in speculative bearishness, so, we could see a rapid squeeze of the shorts soon. I'm vigilant, and monitoring the daily developments to fade the extremes.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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GBPUSD, range exp target hit, we can go to the bottom of the range again.
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We didn't get to break the level I outlined, so we go back down. I'm down 0.5% courtesy of Tony Blair...thanks Tony.
Interestingly, this signal has a smaller target, and lands right on the 'flash crash key level' and a strong support zone to go long, so, let's keep an eye on it, set alerts for the key level zone at 1.2264 give or take to get ready to jump on the long side if price action is favorable down there.
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I'll add to longs on setbacks. If we get one after the London close, it'd be ideal to add to our position we're building. The daily downtrend will fail if we move a tad higher, so it is still a concern for now. There's time left, as detailed on the chart here, so, while below 1.2492, we can't expect immediate bullish follow through.
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Not falling, when you have an RgMov downtrend (means sentiment is extremely pessimistic), and also 'Time at mode' downtrend signals implying lower prices, means buyers are absorbing supply. Keep accumulating on setbacks.
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As usual, I'm adding on dips here. We had a massive breakout and completely bullish 'bearish failure' signal today, so we can expect a strong rally from this zone.
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Just added my final position here and placed a tight stop for all.
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Good to see this base resulted in a huge rally now.
very clear explaination.Thank you for sharing. I share smililar view also :)
IvanLabrie
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@taming_the_mind, welcome, thanks for the comments, and good luck!
RobbyWestHouston
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I am going long under 1.24 and technical over sold conditions down to 1.22 to accumulate a long position!
IvanLabrie
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@RobbyWestHouston, I was thinking of accumulating because it's 55% odds of hitting 1.22 zone now, and we're testing the top of the Parliamentary inclusion day.
What do you think? We can start building a position, until the next news event. Stops should go below 1.21 at least I'd assume, until we get closer to support levels, then we could become more aggressive with stops, size and complete our position with good avg. entry, but we need more data, and daily bars for this. We could buy until the last TAM signal time expires, by March 1st.
RobbyWestHouston
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@IvanLabrie, I am! I started at 1.2395. If it drops below 1.24 my code will start back looking to a over sold condition to add. Will keep on adding all the way to 1.2170. How I am doing GBPUSD. Different for GBPJPY and GBPCHF. I started on GBPCHF 1.24 and will add more below 1.2350. GBPJPY I have started at 139.70 and will keep adding down to 136.70
RobbyWestHouston
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@IvanLabrie, GBPAUD I am going to try at 1.6150-1.6140 area if it makes it.
IvanLabrie
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@RobbyWestHouston, I prefer long AUDUSD, long GBPUSD right now...also in EURUSD. Simpler. You have a good plan.
Let's see if we nail this mate.
RobbyWestHouston
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@IvanLabrie, So far so good! Love it when a plan comes together....stops all in profits! Cost nothing to try it now!!!!
IvanLabrie
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@RobbyWestHouston, I have no stops, I'm open to adding lower. We'll see how it goes.
Cheers!
RobbyWestHouston
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I agree...I think this push lower is a good long. I do not see 1.20 being taken out. Personally I think 1.24-1.22 is the zone. We will see!