High time frame Fib series which control of GU since 2018. You already know the massive Brexit/Elections volatility. Break Out traders should be watching these levels keenly.
Which way will it break? Does it really matter? When will it break? Set TV "Alerts" to warn you. Why 216 pips? Notice the precise energy bands.
My method maps the "Pulse" of an asset. The bands always cause price reactions. What happens at each one can be telling.
Per this smaller TF fib plot below, it is primed for a drop:
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Ping
Just kissed the end of the cliff and retracting a bit
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Rut Roh!
Just walked off the cliff hopefully a retest and then plunge ....
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Retested.
Sprang back up to the fib for retest and will hopefully pull away now
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Wow, what a whipsaw.
So we had a fake break below, then a spike blasting upwards (based on election developments)
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Zoom IN (3 min) and a possible fib of this move This implies that some traders expected (or knew?) the election outcome and started buying will before the spike upon public announcement.
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Zoom OUT (1 hr) with the new Fib in place, we have two possible target zones and a new support Thus tow possible path ways for next advance (if there is to be one). Break below 1.335/36 would mean higher targets my not be achievable. Bullish sign would be a clean bounce off the 3.326 around 1.34xx.
== Summary == Spiked for about 430 pips to the upside, and still looks able to reach the upside target. Small retrace can be expected, perhaps to 1.335/36 and possible bounce to target.
slight issue with this system, so it broke the green channel 1.31 and restested as in your image, so i have a sell there and im down big, mostly because i have sells well below 1.27
So it went below and you expecte 220 fall, then it rose so fast could not get in, i did not place a buy stop as i didnt expect such a big move
Im stuck with sells and would appreciate your help, basically can i hold and will it return to 1.24 area, i see your upside potential will try make the most of your charts, cheers
EuroMotif
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@Jaypipin, Hello and sorry to hear this.
What was needed was as stop loss, just behind the fib that was of interest.
This system shows very precise boundaries, but that's about it.
It does not say much about direction, especially when there is a large NEW "force" applied.
In this case that Force was obviously the election results.
So which way a new Force will be applied is always a guess.
And with news events of this nature, it often swings both ways (same with FOMC days for example),
The best application of this method is to use the precise boundaries for SL and TP settings.
For example, enter short upon retest of the 1.31 line, but place SL just above the line by say 10 pips (during non-volatile times, and larger for events like this).
The point is that if price crosses BACK across a given line, by even just a LITTLE BIT (3-5 pips), it will probably swing to the NEXT line.
I guess I should spend some time explaining how best to use these charts, in the charts themselves, my apologies for lack for clarity....
Jaypipin
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@EuroMotif, thanks that does help. My mistake i had several open trades already long story, but added more when broke the level you suggested i hoped it would fall as mentioned and to my disbelief a ufo appeared. I can hold out but not if 1.36+ prints. Question about your latter chart images, you drew fib on m3/h1 why is does the fib not start at the bottom of move, perhaps not the lowest low but just before the green bars start to climb on m3 chart . It seems to start in odd place, this openness to drawing fibs always worries me, as one person would draw differently to another. I shall continue to follow and see if i can make sense/use of your fib tool.
EuroMotif
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@Jaypipin, Good question about the fib placement.
I start on the 1 minute (or even 10 second) chart to look for turning points that might indicate the start/end of an impulse.
Next I look for confirmation at one of the extensions.
- for normal volatility, I want to see a Ping on the 1.236 or 1.618, or at most the 2.618.
- for high volatility, look for pings on the 3.618 or 4.236.
If not pings at such extensions, then I try another nearby low or high for the 0.0 or 1.0.
So I might have several possible fibs at first, but within a few moves I should be able to narrow it down to one.
Otherwise, there may have been no new impulse, as in price was just following existing ripples from previous impulses.
Of course, in this case there was a new Impulse for sure, so just gotta find that correct Impulse width.
Lastly, that entire spike COULD be an impulse itself, as in over next few weeks if the price keeps going up, it may well follow multiples of that spike....
EuroMotif
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@Jaypipin, Another quick example of fib placement.
This a crypto currency, kinda hot right now.
Was looking for a bounce, got it, and am now trying to plot that impulse of the bounce.
And have a likely good fib based on the confirmations pointed by blue arrows. Even here, the 1.0 is not exactly at the peak of the wicks around it. but I guess an average of those wicks got me the confirmations.
Jaypipin
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@EuroMotif, Fantastic, the penny just dropped, i totally see how you draw and what you mean by scope, you dont just draw from low to high of wave, draw it rather to see where pings are working, several touches and then you could have an impulse and could use that for several moves at the other levels. Its somewhat new to me, im a lazy indicator trader just want arrows lol, but i have many theories for trade size, sl, tp etc this does intrigue me and hopefully others to study further, hopeufully others can see this. I would keep the crypto example for others this really helps with what and how to draw. Just finally on entries, so you wouldnt enter on every ping? how to know which is best, would you say the first touch after a break like you showed on gbpusd, the first ping entry was good, any more on the same level is less likely to work? Thanks again for your time.
EuroMotif
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So here is an example from the Idea I posted after this one.
I fib'd the spike, and am anticipating another leg up (again assuming no new forces). So notice the two exact "Pings" on the Green 3.236.
That is how precise those lines are. So if one had gone long on first ping (ideal), or now on the second ping (not advisable), the SL could be just below the line by less than 5 pips (but add spread).
If a long was taken, then some profit could be collected at the first touch of next line up (3.618).
Once the price went past the 3.618, SL could be moved to just below it, and it would have been taken out in profit.
Jaypipin
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@EuroMotif, understood, thanks. So price breaks above both levels then return for first ping, is a good entry point, pings thereafter are weaker. Vice versa for sell. So if price broke 4.618 then wait for buy at 4.236? is this correct method you would suggest along with the sl and pings as you mentioned. Thank you for your time and efforts ;)
EuroMotif
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@Jaypipin, of note, the system had marked your post as "spam" which I just un-did.
That can happen when a new-ish account posts a lot of comments.
** Just a heads up ^^
FT_Lexicon
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That's why i stand long and find out short entry, but, i can't expect that bull run's over somewhere :(
So it went below and you expecte 220 fall, then it rose so fast could not get in, i did not place a buy stop as i didnt expect such a big move
Im stuck with sells and would appreciate your help, basically can i hold and will it return to 1.24 area, i see your upside potential will try make the most of your charts, cheers