4xForecaster

$GBP vs. $USD Meets Resistance; Completes Wolfe Wave #BOE

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
Friends,

There are several technical hurdles likely to temporize further advances against the $GBPUSD:

1 - Completion of a Scott Carney's Shark-into-Five-O at the current price level. The 5-0 pattern is a natural acolyte of the Shark pattern, completing at 50% of the Shark's last swing (see 50% Fibonacci mark attainment in the chart):


snapshot


2 - A Significant 50% retracement from the recent structural lows, independent of the aforementioned 5-0 pattern completion is also likely to impose its own technical weigh against further advance.

3 - Completion of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern at its 5th conclusive point, a level from which this geometry is expected to reverse and seek validation of its 1-4 Line.


OVERALL, these are several technical features whose combination may impose a temporizing reversal on price ... Worth heeding.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste segment of chart updates and technical notes. This is done to keep chronology of "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" notes separate from discussion thread:

======================================
18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Here is a safe level of Stop-Loss definition, using the 0.618-Fibonacci convergent with the 2-4 Line projecting off of Point-3 (i.e.: Point-5-prime creation) - See following chart:

snapshot


If a 5-prime occurred, then remember to apply the "OffSet Rule" to define and continue to aim for the highest probability target.

Best,

David Alcindor


24 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPUSD continues its daily decline since forecast; Nascent WW still offers guidance:

snapshot


$GBP $USD #BOE #forex #euro
----------
David Alcindor


01 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPUSD continues to decline as forecast, carving out a lower low - Bearish outlook:

snapshot


$GBP $USD #BOE #forex
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David Alcindor


07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPUSD continues to roll as forecast; Interim rally limited to 2-4 Line; Bears in charge:

snapshot


$GBP $USD #BOE #forex
----------
David Alcindor


14 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPUSD validated geometry's 2-4 Line underside; Continues its downward course to 1-4 Line:

snapshot


$GBP $USD #BOE #forex
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David Alcindor


04 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$GBPUSD continues to roll since forecast; Reactive rally to 1.54448 probable; Bearish:

snapshot


$USD $GBP #BOE #forex
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David Alcindor


08 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$GBPUSD rallies to 1.54448 as forecast; Remains net-bearish as shown:

snapshot


$USD $GBP $BOE #sterling #pound #forex
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David Alcindor


20 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Expecting a decline to 1.4849 as major support:

snapshot


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David Alcindor


22 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

1.48490 remains probable static target; 1-4 Line remains dynamic target:

snapshot


David Alcindor
==================================
Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains susceptible to controlled declined, that is down to 1.48490. Any lower remains improbable. Overall, net outlook remains bullish:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is nearing completion as it moves in the 1.48490 target:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 11 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Expect 1.5222/1.5245 range to mark a reversal and resumption of downtrend, with completion of this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 16 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As fourth daily candle opens this new trading week at the pre-defined resistance - Price remains subdued to 1.5245, whereas Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on 1.48490 bearish target.

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to fall towards bearish target at 1.48490 ... Break of the Geo's 1-3 Line will open up the floor and increase forecast's probability:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 29 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Whereas price did fall in the way of the WW/Geo to validate the 1-4 Line, it did so carving lower-lows in excess of expectation. The expectation was expressed by the recent reciprocal ab = cd symmetry.

At the current level, a new predictive analysis and forecasting is warranted, as price also would have exceed the Daily timeframe's Watch Line (not posted in the original analysis).

Here is where we stand at the moment:
snapshot


A new predictive analysis and forecast is coming up.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As we continue to apply the Predictive/Forecasting Model on the #Cable, following are the probable targets in order of probable progression:

1 - TG-1 = 1.53501 - 22 JUN 2016
2 - TG-Lox = 1.36099 - 22 JUN 2016
3 - WL = 1.30673 - 22 JUN 2016

snapshot


In terms of geometric development, a presumed WW/Geo is underway, with its Point-4 forecast at TG-1 = 1.53501 as per today (22 JUN 2016), whereas this same geometry's Point-5 is presumed to reside at the TG-Lox = 1.36099 (High-Prob.) down to WL = 1.30673, both targets produced today (22 JUN 2016).

Note that the Point-4 may also validate the underbelly of a prior A-B-C-D-E geometry, which sent price falling to recent lows - The B-D line extension is one to look for in terms of this expected resistance, concurrent to defining Point-4 of the newer geometric development (i.e.: WW/Geo in BLUE).

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update: Hit target

Although price did end up hitting the bearish target we had set out for the British pound, an intermediate target to the up-side was anticipated, but not reached:

snapshot


There are two additional risk levels (possible targets) to the downside I will add following this comment.

Have a great weekend.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

PS: I am now offering a private course to advanced traders, revealing the simple method I have been using to define the trend, direction, strength, extent of price action, as well as forecast price targets - This course gets the advanced technical analyst to that next level of leading knowledge by turning from a price follower to a price forecaster - If interested, feel free to request more information at admin@KADAInstitute.com - David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 24 JUN 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Watch for 1.27347 concluding the large impulse, as it may define Wave-V's final residence ... On a WEEKLY chart, this is a less sensitive data, hence a wait and see stance is warranted at this time:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 26 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Revision of Geo provides this new, more expanded pattern:

snapshot


Also, note that a high-probability level for Point-3 as well as Point-4 have been redefined as well, offering a narrower range than the tentative data provided on "Brexit Day", since the data concluded last Friday at market's close, and Predictive/Forecasting Model digested latest batch.

Overall, this market remains uncertain, but the "Model" offers its highest-probability price action and forecast.

The WL is a HIGH probability level as shown, whereas the JANUS prop pattern is a lesser probability forecast event.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
Comment: 26 JUN 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Worse case scenario: 1.13204 low.

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 28 JUN 2016 - Tech-Note:

From a discussion with TradingView community trader:

===========================
Yes, my views are always macro ... I like to look at the "system" rather than the parts, as the system tends to remain and the parts be replaced, in a very simplistic way.

In Forex, I look at large geometric systems influencing the underlying market, even when the fundamentals are calling for one way or another. Somehow, it's the geometry that wins.

In the case of the $GBP for instance, it had to go down. On 22 JUN, before the Brexit referendum results, I expected a slight rallying, but a much deeper downside:
snapshot


That was not a "good call", but simply reading in the expectation of a much larger system which I use in my "Model".

The result was a "bounce" to the upside, corresponding to a "recoil" before it fell to the level I had anticipated and hit that qualitative target:
snapshot


Still, the model is not finished, so to speak, and an ultimate low remains expectant at the WL line, even though this is the LEAST probable of all qualitative target. But the "Model" keeps this own as probable, regardless of the degree of probability.

As I am typing this, I will include this and present this to the public, since it does reflect my views of the market, and in a way, it may intrigue some other traders to think that there is something much bigger than us that we can't control.

I must go. Lessons are due today, and I will have to take myself out for a hike in the mountains.

Talking soon,

David
===========================

David Alcindorr, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 03 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Quality piece!
Reply
Hello David, Thanks for sharing your analysis, Could you please review my chart and suggest your current view on this market? Thanks in advance.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Hello @ewpnx1 - Yes, this would qualify as a Wolfe Wave (not GEO). I am not certain that the 5' is a true one (i.e.: defined by the overall geometry, since price would need to validate the 2-4 Line off of Point-3).

Additionally, this geometry does not meet all of the internal requirements of the Geo, but it does fulfill the overall gist of a Wolfe Wave.

David Alcindor
Reply
Hi David, Any update on GBPUSD...
+1 Reply
Hello, Mrsaini,

Price did hit the WW'Geo's target ... New analysis coming up soon with new target as well.

David
Reply
esonchew 4xForecaster
Hope to see your new analysis
Reply
This one was a really great reversal call. 100% perfect. I'm doing shamelessly and update:

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GBPUSD is now heading parabolic to the target doing a 5 years low, what would we expect ?
At the sametime GBPEUR is hanging outsite a year range, rounded top.

snapshot


+2 Reply
J.Livermore PRO J.Livermore
Based on your last update, expecting this

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO J.Livermore
Based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule:

1 - If price reverses from Point-5, the highest probability target rests along the 1-4 Line ("Geo's Off-Set Rule #1");

2 - If price reverses from Point-5', the highest probability target rests at the price level corresponding to Point-4 ("Geo's Off-Set Rule #2")

AND

3 - If price reverses from Point-5'', the highest probability target rests at the price level corresponding to Point-3 ("Geo's Off-Set Rule #3")


So, in the case of your chart, the highest probability reversal would occur according to the second rule.


David
+4 Reply
J.Livermore PRO 4xForecaster
Oh, didn't knew that one. Makes sense !
Reply
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