If the USD data today is surprisingly , then maybe. gotta read carefully the lines in between. However, there are some problems..... looks good for the bulls at the moment.
The price bars are moving erratically with no bear in sight. There is two more hours until US retail sales come out, and then Yellen speaks today, I believe. Gotta double check that. I am actually short early, betting that the US data will prove positive, but I could be wrong.
Actually, quarterly targets are hit! I should be on vacation now since I was filled at 1.1660 when the GBPUSD crashed. haha! Maybe this can be a final trade today. The mixed data coming out tonight for the UK is really interesting and it deserves its own post! Please check it out.
I am copying and pasting m report on the UK here because it deserves a section on its own:
Warning! The Carney Golf Put sounds good for GBP. Quarterly target has been reached already, but well see if it can go down more. News is positive::
"04:10 BoE Governor Carney reiterates that the BoE's actions have prevented the situation in regards to Brexit becoming worse, adding that they are willing to tolerate some overshoot to accommodate economic strength"
Bank of England Credit Check so far doesn't look good as I read it, but taking Carney at his word today, t is hard to remain short, unless for the cause of a stronger dollar. "http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/other/monetary/ccs/2016/16q3.pdf
Thus, this surprising catalst causes me to reduce HALF of my position, as things are not lining up in my favor and causing confusion to the situation.
an hour ago
Comment: VERY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THIS QUARTER:
Interesting news: "S&P's warning that the GBP could lose its reserve status" :
Another Summary here:
OLD BUT *vERY iMPORTANT TO read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/sterling-could-lose-position-as-elite-reserve-currency-if-uk-vot/
FINALLY: FORIEGN DIRECT INVESTMENT <-- This is what I've been dying to hear!
Lack of Foriegn Direct Investment slightly confirmed. Many probably will not understand this statement. hehe That is good for me: "Mr said Britain has limited scope for a spree on infrastructure projects and is walking a fine line on budget policy. "Before Brexit, the trajectory was planned fiscal consolidation, but we're no longer certain we're going to see that," ( Bhatia is the S&P director of sovereign ratings in Britain).
RUMOR HAS IT that MANY US banks are about to pull out of the UK:
- France says US banks plan to leave Brexit Britain: "French finance minister Michel Sapin says US banks have told him they will move operations out of Britain as it presses ahead with Brexit" https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/14/france-says-us-banks-plan-to-leave-brexit-britain-business-live
Conclusion: I am unsure, but, it seems that Carney could be fishing and vying for investors until the UK's fate is sealed. Does he know that people are focusing so much on the politics that they are ignoring the issue at hand; namely, a possible lack of investment flow holding up the float?
But we have seen here that foreign direct investment flow is a big NO SHOW, but no one is talking about it, just us!
If banks are going to pull out of the UK, then why buy their currency? But, let's believe Carney and take him into consideration.
UPDATE ~ Clearer conclusion: So, while the data is coming inn for the UK suggests weakness, Carney of the Bank of England is actually supporting the currency because his statements are suggesting that his accommodative policies are on hold for now. Mixed stuff!
US PPI m/m up 0.3% compared to 0% last time, and better than the 0.2% forecast
The core PPI similar.
Awesome! ..now Yellen speaks today.
The numbers look good on the surface, but you once you really think about out with the ol' 1300 gram noggin up there, this really looks terrible for the UK.
"Comments from the UK attorney that 'Brexit' will 'very likely' require ratification by parliament have pushed GBP higher still, with the assumption being that this will prove to be softer stance by PM May in the negotiations that follow. However, these have been followed up by further comments that the UK and EU could potentially reach an agreement to come into effect without parliamentary approval." So, people got confused and thought that the parliament would vote NOW..but then realized.. after listening to the rest that they will ratify AFTER article 50 is enacted.
Visual Capitalist http://www.visualcapitalist.com/october-flash-crash-british-pound/
Consider we're in a giant inside bar after bar, since we didn't break below the gigantic flash crash day's range.
A new high there would warrant attention, a new low too. In the mean time it can chop around.