Rocketman
Short

GBPUSD: Quarterly Targets: SEE PREVIOUS GBP Economic Report

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
298 3 9
2 months ago
One last short for the road?

If the USD data today is surprisingly bullish , then maybe. gotta read carefully the lines in between. However, there are some problems..... volume looks good for the bulls at the moment.
The price bars are moving erratically with no bear in sight. There is two more hours until US retail sales come out, and then Yellen speaks today, I believe. Gotta double check that. I am actually short early, betting that the US data will prove positive, but I could be wrong.

Actually, quarterly targets are hit! I should be on vacation now since I was filled at 1.1660 when the GBPUSD             crashed. haha! Maybe this can be a final trade today. The mixed data coming out tonight for the UK is really interesting and it deserves its own post! Please check it out.

I am copying and pasting m report on the UK here because it deserves a section on its own:

Warning! The Carney Golf Put sounds good for GBP. Quarterly target has been reached already, but well see if it can go down more. News is positive::
"04:10 BoE Governor Carney reiterates that the BoE's actions have prevented the situation in regards to Brexit becoming worse, adding that they are willing to tolerate some inflation overshoot to accommodate economic strength"

Bank of England Credit Check so far doesn't look good as I read it, but taking Carney at his word today, t is hard to remain short, unless for the cause of a stronger dollar. "http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/other/monetary/ccs/2016/16q3.pdf

Thus, this surprising catalst causes me to reduce HALF of my position, as things are not lining up in my favor and causing confusion to the situation.
an hour ago
Comment: VERY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THIS QUARTER:
Interesting news: "S&P's warning that the GBP could lose its reserve status" :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/13/standard--poors-warns-on-uk-reserve-currency-status-as-brexit-ha/

Another Summary here:
http://news.forexlive.com/!/sp-report-on-pound-losing-reserve-status-being-cited-for-earlier-gbp-retreat-20161014

OLD BUT *vERY iMPORTANT TO read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/sterling-could-lose-position-as-elite-reserve-currency-if-uk-vot/

FINALLY: FORIEGN DIRECT INVESTMENT <-- This is what I've been dying to hear!
Lack of Foriegn Direct Investment slightly confirmed. Many probably will not understand this statement. hehe That is good for me: "Mr Ravi             said Britain has limited scope for a spree on infrastructure projects and is walking a fine line on budget policy. "Before Brexit, the trajectory was planned fiscal consolidation, but we're no longer certain we're going to see that," ( Ravi             Bhatia is the S&P             director of sovereign ratings in Britain).

RUMOR HAS IT that MANY US banks are about to pull out of the UK:
- France says US banks plan to leave Brexit Britain: "French finance minister Michel Sapin says US banks have told him they will move operations out of Britain as it presses ahead with Brexit" https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/14/france-says-us-banks-plan-to-leave-brexit-britain-business-live

Conclusion: I am unsure, but, it seems that Carney could be fishing and vying for investors until the UK's fate is sealed. Does he know that people are focusing so much on the politics that they are ignoring the issue at hand; namely, a possible lack of investment flow holding up the float?
But we have seen here that foreign direct investment flow is a big NO SHOW, but no one is talking about it, just us!

If banks are going to pull out of the UK, then why buy their currency? But, let's believe Carney and take him into consideration.

UPDATE ~ Clearer conclusion: So, while the data is coming inn for the UK suggests weakness, Carney of the Bank of England is actually supporting the currency because his statements are suggesting that his accommodative policies are on hold for now. Mixed stuff!
2 months ago
Comment: The volume data could turn around for the bears when the USD data comes alive in about an hour from now. Hopefully, it will be "surprisingly" good. No surprise, no one cares.
2 months ago
Comment: Still all green candles...no volume divergence and 28 minutes to go before USD data comes out.
2 months ago
Comment: Volume, indeed, has picked up:
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: Some 15 minute volume divergence..yeah..but in light of what to come in 15 minutes, it makes NO SENSE watching it..just wait:
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: bearish signs. At least we know what the market wants, but will they get it? 15 minutes and we shall know.
2 months ago
Comment: US Core Retail Sales m/m up 0.5% compared to -0.1% last time, and +0.1% above the forecast.
US PPI m/m up 0.3% compared to 0% last time, and better than the 0.2% forecast
The core PPI similar.

Awesome! ..now Yellen speaks today.
2 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: Economics 101 here: he CPI y/y makes no sense at this point. Of course, it would be higher compared to last year's because the CPI started to pick up in 2016 right before the Brexit. I think November will bring more clarity. And TipTVFinance has also pointed out in his blog: " The rise in inflation would be due to falling Pound... that would eventually bring down real wages and consumption too."

The numbers look good on the surface, but you once you really think about out with the ol' 1300 gram noggin up there, this really looks terrible for the UK.
2 months ago
Comment: What's needed now? For the US data to come out very positive. So, I will be going back to sleep.
2 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: There is some "other" news just came out: "UK Attorney says it is 'very likely' that Brexit will require ratification by MPs." This means that "maybe" there will not be such a hard Brexit. So, it is a left upper cut. ...a hidden and unexpected punch that is not from the data itself.
2 months ago
Comment: This puts us in limbo with the GBP slightly once again as this "surprise" attack filled my order above, but now have gotten my concerned a tad.
2 months ago
Comment: You get a nice set-up, and then, some new data comes right in to spoil it a little. Here is why it went up and then why it stopped rallyingL

"Comments from the UK attorney that 'Brexit' will 'very likely' require ratification by parliament have pushed GBP higher still, with the assumption being that this will prove to be softer stance by PM May in the negotiations that follow. However, these have been followed up by further comments that the UK and EU could potentially reach an agreement to come into effect without parliamentary approval." So, people got confused and thought that the parliament would vote NOW..but then realized.. after listening to the rest that they will ratify AFTER article 50 is enacted.
2 months ago
Comment: All of these patterns on he charts are at the FATE of the news comments.
2 months ago
Comment: High Court still meeting with UK ministers. They are waiting on the judgement. It can go ANYWAY from here..up or down. Parliament unneeded for article 50, though.
2 months ago
Comment: If parliament is allowed to vote, then this will block Theresa May from sending down the Brexit article 50 ax. That may send the GBP flying high. So, keep your ears open to the news about what is happening with these people in high places.
a month ago
Comment: Hey! This is a nice article that summarizes the great trade (short) taken in GBPSD, and the flash crash that followed it in the economic direction I was following:

Visual Capitalist http://www.visualcapitalist.com/october-flash-crash-british-pound/
Traznor
2 months ago
nice for the short
Reply
LancerComet
2 months ago
Nice analysis!
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP
2 months ago
Excellent commentary, I think it's still a short, if we get higher prices, even better.
Simple.
Consider we're in a giant inside bar after bar, since we didn't break below the gigantic flash crash day's range.

A new high there would warrant attention, a new low too. In the mean time it can chop around.
Reply
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