As expected… PM May defeated on her Brexit deal. Although a smaller margin than the first time, with highlights coming from David Davis switching sides and a softer Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Round 2 is in play for the House of Commons tonight. The house are voting on whether it supports leaving the EU without a deal. Markets are overwhelmingly expecting this to be rejected, leaving the possibility of a Brexit extension (round 3) tomorrow the most likely scenario.
I must stress that a one Quarter delay to Brexit should not be viewed as anything other than kicking the can further down the road and postponing the inevitable economic pain that is coming. The extension will offer a third attempt of getting May’s deal through…unbelievable right?… but it is what it is.
The pressure on brexiteers to deliver Brexit is mounting and my base case is for the deal to eventually pass meaning the UK will leave the EU with a Hard Brexit and the Pound will have to devalue to offset the immediate loss of access to the global trade stage.
Here I am remaining short and continuing to load any soft rallies above the 1.32 handle. We are unlocking the floor after this week, best of luck those who are already positioned and those who are loading!
Thanks again for all the support!
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By now I hope all here are fully locked and loaded on the sell-side...
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Finally we are breaking down...well done all the cable assassins