cogent-trader

Wave count for GBTC--where are we?

Long
OTC:GBTC   Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)
We've been trading GBTC while hodling BTC long term. Using the BTC charts has worked and the assets are tightly correlated relative price action and percentage gains. Most know or should know that GBTC can swing from a discount to a premium against the underlying asset.

Chart: some folks called the bottom in July as minor wave 2 of a new wave 1 uptrend in a bigger picture of the final major wave 5 of this bull market. I see it differently.

It looks more like wave C of major 4 bottomed in July and wave 1 of 1 (of major 5) began. Now, if you look at where rejection happened at the .50 retracement (minor 1 top-8/23), followed by a logical zig zag a,b,c pattern to complete minor 2 bottom. It starts to make sense.

Perspective: minor 2 pull back into .38 of minor 1 is also 1.618 extension of wave A (of minor 2). Those two support lines together are more like a wave 2 than a wave 4 (which are often more complex). If it was a wave 4 that means we've completed a wave 3 (of 1). Which means we would be relying a a short minor wave 5 to takes us higher (if this true we would not likely make it to ATH before a larger correction).

To grind through the blue box on the chart and back to ATH and beyond I believe we need to be earlier in the new uptrend. Minor wave 3 of this first larger wave 1 (of major wave 5) starting now will provide the power to do so. I believe a minor wave 4 correction is more likely near previous highs, with final 5 of 1 topping just above previous highs, then major wave 2. Then a hard pump into late NOV.

Let me know what yo think? How do you see it relative to these technicals?