drchelsea1

GBTC - Short $48.95 / Scaling In / Not a Joke

Short
OTC:GBTC   GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC)
0. Take 20 minutes to short this today at $48.95 as an opening position;

1. Risk Review? We call nonsense. We got approved, but almost missed it. Only 100% Margin on GTBC, and lots to borrow, so what's the problem?

2. For every $1 GBTC goes up, will add to the short, and as it goes down, same thing;

3. Not sure where we will cover yet;
Comment: 4. $50K sounds like a nice "cash out point". Also, you have to be blind not to see what just happened to GME. Someone also with no intrinsic value like Bitcoin.
Comment: 5. So we start small, and slowly build a short position, until we reach our maximum buy in, and wait. Let's see how high the pumpers can push this baby.

6. At some point, it will implode. Depends on whether we can stay solvent longer than the punters can stay irrational. We won on GME, deeper pockets, we shall see on this one. Been waiting patiently for years to short this.
Comment: NOTE

For every $1 that GBTC rises, BTC must rise $1000 dollars. So we are adding to our short at $1000 BTC rise intervals. Obviously Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, and we can't and there are no options on GBTC to help us Delta Hedge. If you could be Delta Neutral on Bitcoin (you would need the untrustworthy exchanges for this), you straddle almost for free, based on how fast this things moves.

Anyway, we have allocated a budget to this, and we will see this project through.

If Bitcoin hits $100K will we be stopped out.

Good Luck!

- Drchelsea (I knew Hal Finney - RIP My Friend)
Comment: Also, we know that Bitcoin can go a lot higher in the short term, we have an algorithm that allocates funds and takes care of this for us. We also have a hedge, that we would (complex hedge), that has a -94% correlation to Bitcoin, and we have better access to. This should allow us to stay in the game until Bitcoin hits $100K. When it implodes, this will pay off exponentially. It will re-balance itself during opening and closing hours of the Market, and add to short position as required during the trading hours.

Cheers.
Comment: We used the same algorithms to make money here:

Comment: Note: Before you post "you are nuts" comments, "you will lose it all", please be aware that just because Bitcoin is up $2000, doesn't mean we "lost our shirts". GBTC would only open up $2 higher, and we would short more units. Simple as that.

Now, if Bitcoin were to gap up $100,000 dollars, we have have a issue.

After what Elon Musk pulled, I can't imagine a catalyst on this planet to create such a scenario.

If Bitcoin gaps up $50K or more in one evening, so that GBTC is up $50 or more, then and "only then" would we be adding more capital to continue this game. It is a game. Chaos Theory at it's best.

We are The Prediction Company / Chaos Theory meets AI

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction...
Comment: Majority is not Enough:Bitcoin Mining is Vulnerable

Majority is not Enough:Bitcoin Mining is Vulnerable∗Ittay Eyal and Emin G ̈un Sirer Department of Computer Science, Cornell Universityittay.eyal@cornell.edu, egs@systems.cs.cornell.eduAbstract.The Bitcoin cryptocurrency records its transactions in a pub-lic log called the blockchain. Its security rests critically on the distributed protocol that maintains the blockchain, run by participants called min-ers. Conventional wisdom asserts that the mining protocol is incentive-compatible and secure against colluding minority groups, that is, it in-centivizes miners to follow the protocol as prescribed.We show that the Bitcoin mining protocol is not incentive-compatible.We present an attack with which colluding miners obtain a revenue larger than their fair share. This attack can have significant consequences for Bitcoin: Rational miners will prefer to join the selfish miners, and the colluding group will increase in size until it becomes a majority. At this point, the Bitcoin system ceases to be a decentralized currency.Unless certain assumptions are made, selfish mining may be feasible for any group size of colluding miners. We propose a practical modification to the Bitcoin protocol that protects Bitcoin in the general case. It prohibits elfish mining by pools that command less than 1/4 of the resources. This threshold is lower than the wrongly assumed 1/2 bound, but better than the current reality where a group of any size can compromise the system

https://www.cs.cornell.edu/~ie53/publica...
Comment: UPDATE - ADAM AND EVE DOUBLE TOP FORMING

Adam is a term that describes how the top looks, in this case, Adam sports a narrow, pointed top, perhaps with a one-day upward spike. The following Eve top is more rounded looking and wider. If Eve has spikes, they tend to be more numerous and shorter. Many times the difference between Adam and Eve is the width of each over their entire height. Adam tops tend to remain narrow but Eve tops widen over their height. When trying to decide which is which, ask yourself if the two tops appear different or similar. With Adam & Eve, the two should look different (the first narrow and the second wide).

http://thepatternsite.com/aedt.html
Comment: Update - Observations

Got a call this morning from a friend, who has a 15 year old son, who has $4500 in his bank account. He wants to use it "all to buy Bitcoin". The friends wants to know 2 things:

1. How to purchase Bitcoin;

2. Is this a sound investment for his 15 year old; whom is JOINING all his friends;

This is very close to the end my friends. If this isn't the sign of the last fool getting on board I don't know what is....
Comment: We may still go higher, but the "End is Nigh".
Comment: Update - Beyond Meat Story

In the past year or two, look it up, BYND was at $235 and it was 3pm in the afternoon, and they reported earnings after the close.

Neighbour's son comes home, and he is like 8 years old from Public School. He yells at me "Buy Beyond Meat". I say, "Who told you this?" He says, "The kids in the schoolyard.". It is 3:15pm, and Beyond Meat reports after the close. I SHORT BYND at $235 or so, and after the Bell, it IMPLODES.

Do we need to explain the "last kid/man on board principle"?
Comment: UPDATE - GBTC touched $48.95, WE DOUBLED OUR STARTING SHORT POSITION.
Comment: We are waiting patiently for the "Move over 50K" to add, add, add :)
Comment: UPDATE - FEB 16 2021

1. Added to Short @ 50.95

2. Added to Short @ 51.95

We will keep adding to $100 or Bust :)
Comment: UPDATE - FEB 17 2021

1. Added to Short @ 52.95

And so it goes...
Comment: Update

1. Added to Short @ 53.95.

And so it goes...

Experiment continues to either 100K Bitcoin or we hammer it home...
Comment: Update

Feb 19 2021

1. Added to Short @$56.95

IMPORTANT NOTE:

This is an "irrational exuberance experiment".

We are shorting GBTC in 10 Share Blocks. You do the math. When it finally explodes we should do very well.

Currently Short Position 100 Shares @$54.25

Current GBTC Price $57.05

Current LOSS or GAIN / -$280US (LOSS)

- Cheers
Comment: Note: We have a STOP LOSS of 10K USD. If we lose that, we cover, and we close the experiment.

Now, let's see how it goes.

If we win, we donate to charity.

Cheers.
Comment: EXPERIMENT UPDATE

People. This is only an experiment. We are only working with 10K US total. This is an experiment in "your greed", and our "ability to catch the top".

If we lose 10K, who cares, we are billing this as an "educational experiment" with scientific implications on our tax return.

If we are all in 10K short when this Bitcoin explodes to ZERO. We will be donating ALL OF IT, to charity.

Experiment. Either way we don't lose. The Canadian Government will pick up the tab under the Federal Scientific Research and Experimental Program:

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/...

SO STOP MAKING ANNOYING COMMENTS.

Thanks.

This is an experiment for Charity and Research/Science.

Cheers.
Comment: Clarification of Experiment

This is 10K in "Short Losses", not a "Maximum Short Position of $10,000". There is a big difference. You can be short $1,000,000 Bitcoin, and only have $10,000 in losses if you catch the top and scale in properly. You then keep all the spoils as the autists head for the exits.

Therefore we will keep shorting this and the New Canadian Bitcoin ETF, until we get a margin call, which will not happen unless you can push s h i t coin to $1,000,000 a coin, while the market is closed. If you can GME Bitcoin, all the power to you.

We firmly believe that the world is about to get a lesson in fear and greed. Be greedy while others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

I do not know a Bitcoin holder right now that isn't as greedy as they come. Time to be scared to death.

Best of Luck BagHolders.

This is GME, Not AAPL.

Let the games continue:

Sunday Feb 21 2021 9:08PM

Bitcoin - $56675 US (Was $57500 / $59000) the top?

Are you going to pump this turd to:

1. $62,500?
2. $65K
3. $67,500?
4. $70?

Where will it go as the Head, in the Head and Shoulders Death Pattern?

Stay tuned.
Comment: ATTENTION - WE ARE SHORTING ALL WE CAN AS SOON AS THE MARKET OPENS.

FULL MARGIN.

1 MILLION DOLLARS BITCOIN SHORT, THIS IS THE END.

Game Over. GameStop Style.

$57500 / Top In / Done Deal
Comment: Every single Share of the Canadian Bitcoin ETF we can SHORT at 9:30 AM. Every last cent we have for this experiment will be committed today.

We will take our chances on bankruptcy.

Cheers.
Comment: GBTC / OBTC / Every ETF We can find that is Bitcoin / Altcoin / Sh itcoin / We are going ALL IN SHORT.

ALL IN!
Comment: UPDATE - ALL IN SHORT AS OF LAST UPDATE

Feb 24, 2021 12:10EST

We have committed 10K of Margin against a massive GBTC short position at this point. We are sitting on 10K shares of GBTC short 10K (Average Price $57.08 across 4 BTC funds);

Potential Gain

If this goes to $10, which it will, and soon, we will make:

$46.00 X 10,000 = $460,000 Profit

Potential Loss (UNLIMITED LOL)

If this goes to $67.5, we will be down $100,000+ USD.

Current Paper Profit

$57.08 - $49.37 = $7.71 x 10K = $77,771 USD!

Have a nice day!

- Drchelsea / Michael Burry ;)

At this point we will cover and close the experiment.

Cheers.
Comment: WE ARE IN THE MONEY, SHORT HONEY, IN THE MONEY BABY YEAH THATS THE WAY IT GOES!

LOL.

S H I T COIN!!
Comment: We are 10,000 shares of GBTC (equivalent) short at $57.08. We averaged in hard, right below the all time high. Did you know the Average American Household Income in 2020 was 57,750USD. When the Dutch Tulip Bubble Burst in 1793, a single Tulip Bulb cost the equivalent of the Salary for an Entire Year of a Dutch Household at the time.

Our Target is Zero. End of Story.

Tulip Bulbs ended where they are today.
Comment: American Household Income Average 2020

$57500 USD (Based on our calculations, not some census crapola)

Dutch Household Income Average 1793

$57500 USD (Based on inflation, and other calculations we did)

How much is a Dutch Tulip Bulb Today? 10c

How much was Bitcoin when this started? 10c

How high did a Dutch Tulip Bulb Contract Go in 1793? Then entire income of a family for year.

A year later, the economy was ruined, and the Bulbs were worthless.
Comment: Looks like we nailed it so far:

Comments

Bitcoin has acted like a canary in the coal mine lately for the market, if your models indicate BTC could be headed for $25K what are they saying about the overall market, are you seeing a big correction coming there also?
+1 Reply
I have been a BTC hodler since early 2017 and I can tell you BTC not only has a LOT of intrinsic value but it is ACCELERATING in a world where the self elected NWO central banks are hyper-inflating their fiat currencies and in which people are being censored everyday for wrong think, and can't move their money around without being suspected of being a money laundering "domestic terrorist" or a drug dealer and whatever else these Bolsheviks will come up to smear freedom loving capitalists. The BTC bull markets are triggered every four years historically, around the halvening, and tend to peak about 12-16 months later. I agree that BTC may be getting close to a short term top here but there are MANY potentially HUGE catalysts ahead that could come out over the weekends like Apple buying / integrating BTC... Better to open an account on an established exchange like Kraken so you can cover your short at any time. The BTC bull market is far from over before it hits at least six figures sometime in 2021 or '22
+1 Reply
drchelsea1 Jose-Luis
@Jose-Luis,

Appreciate the fantastic insight. We don't trust any exchange that isn't regulated by some Government; and Slovakia doesn't count ;) We will take our chances with GBTC, and hold the course on what we started. Cheers and thanks again. We are scaling in slowly with algos, and "we have a hedge that works 24 hours a day against Bitcoin" - and we are not sharing this :) Best of luck to everyone.

Question: When the music stops am I guaranteed a chair?

Answer: Is that a joke? No music; No chairs; No table; No floor, No good ;)
Reply
Jose-Luis drchelsea1
@drchelsea1, have you looked into Coinbase Pro or the Winklevoss twins' Gemini? Both are regulated US exchanges and the former is about to IPO, these two exchanges are the custodians for various close ended BTC funds like GBTC. Also, why not just buy puts on MSTR, would seem much more profitable and MUCH better risk reward ratio IMO. If you have some free time, try listening to the recent We Study Billionaires podcast episode 348, they interview Willy Woo who is considered as one of the top technical/fundamental BTC price analysts. His price prediction models which analyze BTC on chain metadata activity, things like amounts of wallets in existence, their balances, how long the coins have been at those addresses have been accurate indicators at calling BTC tops and bottoms for a few years now.
Reply
let's talk in a month's time and we'll see how you've "nailed it" when GTBC goes to $80 lol
Reply
Wait. Did you cover? Your Feb 24, 2021 12:10EST update says "At this point we will cover and close the experiment."
So, still short? If so, what's your target?
Reply
drchelsea1 HughJainis
@HughJainis,

We are 10,000 shares of GBTC (equivalent) short at $57.08. We averaged in hard, right below the all time high. Did you know the Average American Household Income in 2020 was 57,750USD. When the Dutch Tulip Bubble Burst in 1793, a single Tulip Bulb cost the equivalent of the Salary for an Entire Year of a Dutch Household at the time.

Our Target is Zero. End of Story.

Tulip Bulbs ended where they are today.
Reply
skhprabu drchelsea1
@drchelsea1, I don't know about other analysis. But this one doesn't make sense to be. Unlike Dutch tulip bulbs, isn't bitcoin universal ? Then why do you take only average american household income ? Unlike some movies america is not all of the world.
Reply
I see GBTC heading towards 100 dollars a share this bull cycle. Only time will tell who is correct!
Reply
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