JudyCarrot

bearish gold confirmed

COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
as you could see in the chart, daily structure is completely no hope mode since gold breaks the liquidity zone (1800-1820), we will see more drop coming this month. thanks to the intensity indicator, with the clear rejection of the intensity equilibrium line we are currently in a bearish market with no doubt.

here is my previous gold chart analysis, gold has entered the bearish market since last august with monthly indicators topped out.

if weekly close below 1800, then I assume we will continue going down to 1750 with 1800-1820 resistance zone . beside gold chart, we can also monitor us 10 year and dxy chart to combine the information. as I mentioned before, dxy would take off around mid or late Jan which may also be the timing of cheaper gold incoming.


however, us 10 year haven't made a truely breakout. Once us 10 year fully breakout, then gold is very likely to revisit 1670 zone as the breakout price on weekly chart before, with a max potential down to 1560-90 zone to maintain its long term bullish market. once I see bullish confirmation, I will update the new gold chart for next bullish run.

Comment: a daily close above 233 MA around 1823 will invalidate the idea of going down directly, we still have several volume gaps upside at 1900/1830 zone. however, I do think that we have to go down eventually after the final retest especially around mid-late February.
Comment:
looking for more drop, 1670 first tp. gold may retrace up to 1810-1830 zone before next leg down. feb 23rd next timing.
Comment:
cycle timing June 2nd for next
Comment: if we set the cycle from jan 6th, and calculate the dynamic dates divided by 9 degrees (360 degrees in total). then we get Jan 15th/24th, Feb 2nd/11st/20th, March 1st/10th/20th. so far the previous timings work well ,so today we might reverse the downtrend and retrace up to 1800 zone with max target 1835.
Comment:
us 10 year clear breakout, every retrace up is a short
Comment:
gold still has the potential to fill the gap in 1836 zone according to XAUCNY chart, max level to 1850 zone to continue the bearish scenario. now I am waiting for the potential last drop to 1670 zone in early March.
Comment:
watch out march 11/12nd, if US 10 year could break down on that day to start the last bullish run for gold to 2250 zone.
Comment: gold failed to hold 1770 zone which invalidate the idea about filling the gap on XAUCNY chart, next week I will consider buy for the retrace up.
Comment: here is the 1717 we got last week with fibo extension. I think the drop from 2075 is quite clear with ABC down structure. we may still see further down in this C leg after the retrace up this week.