Gold Futures: Upward Pressure

Gold futures have seen increased upward pressure recently, resulting in a notable move higher. However, we continue to view these gains primarily as an internal countertrend move. Currently, we see gold futures in a sell-off phase that is expected to extend into our green Target Zone ($3876–$3335). At that level, we anticipate the low of a larger downward move, followed by a more substantial upside reaction. In our alternative scenario, gold futures would next break above resistance at $4917 to set a new corrective high (probability: 30%). In this case, the expected sell-off would be postponed once again.