Janet Yellen and the FOMC delivered good news for Gold bulls today and tabled a September rate increase just as everyone predicted. As a result, the US $ declined and stocks and Gold advanced. This was good but not great for our long Gold position. Given that we have been trading in this contracting channel since July 1, I (and everyone else!) were expecting an eruption of gold and a definitive breakout from this tightening range. Well, not today. If this could not shake gold from the summer doldrums, you have to wonder what can?
Let's look at the chart. We now have a series of lower highs and higher lowers, forming a new . We also have a formed from these lower highs and the long ascending . A within a . If tomorrow sees a red down candle, then the price compression is likely to last another week or two, extending out to the apex of either .
We also have a gap in play between yesterday's close and today's open. Knowing that all gaps do get filled, if price does move up tomorrow, I feel that the move will be somewhat muted. Price could move up for a couple days and hit the outer BB but then come right back down and fill the gap. Because of this, I am lowering my first Profit Target from 1358 to 1349.50. Remember, Bulls make Money, Bears make Money and Pigs get Slaughtered!
Stay safe and protect those profits!
Gold has moved higher since I published the chart above after the FOMC but is without a doubt moving sideways. But it is also clear that gold has broken out of the latest wedge, touching it twice in the last 2 days but closing higher than the wedge. While not the most bullish of moves, the lack of penetration below the upper wedge line does show that Gold might be consolidating and gathering energy, getting ready for another push up to the most recent high of 1377.5.
I have also plotted a vertical line 9 bars out to show a potential timeframe for hitting that target. This is based on a purely anecdotal calculation of the cycle lengths in this latest bull flag.
Please share any thoughts or questions.