It looks like GOLD needs to test middle KC which is also 38% fibonacci and red trend line broken 3 months ago. It may also test this HL bullish trend line. Within my natural bullish bias I wanted yesterdays new LL to be a bottom but from this chart it looks like it will be very hard from here to go up more than small intraday swing. I need to take this big view into my intraday analysis and always remember about that. Good luck
Trade active:
Setup is active all the way. Broken (red) trend line contact point is in 224 range and it is even more extended to this bullish trend line HL contact point in 205 range on current monthly candle and on 215 with next month candle(less possibility). Currently in 230-240 area price may take a retrace swing cause lack of power on daily RSI and divergence on H4 RSI. If we analyse those bearish swings in current year we will not find any with >100$ drop. Last one in 2016 was after POTUS was choosen. With my natural bullish bias it was a good idea to place this long term analysis because every time I wanted to place a buy order I had this chart in my mind. Good Luck
Trade active:
My Oct plan predicted that POG will test 38%, middle KC and that red bearish trend line. With current setup applied allmost perfectly to those technical points rejecting only one channel down (205-220) and stopping on 239 which was 78% of 205-360 daily fibonacci swing. With fundamental view for cheap dollar gold make take some really nice race creating bullish flag on monthly chart, but it is really long term view for next few years (a new GOLD cycle). Good luck