It looks like GOLD needs to test middle KC which is also 38% fibonacci and red trend line broken 3 months ago. It may also test this HL bullish trend line. Within my natural bullish bias I wanted yesterdays new LL to be a bottom but from this chart it looks like it will be very hard from here to go up more than small intraday swing. I need to take this big view into my intraday analysis and always remember about that. Good luck
Trade active
⋅
Setup is active all the way. Broken (red) trend line contact point is in 224 range and it is even more extended to this bullish trend line HL contact point in 205 range on current monthly candle and on 215 with next month candle(less possibility). Currently in 230-240 area price may take a retrace swing cause lack of power on daily RSI and divergence on H4 RSI. If we analyse those bearish swings in current year we will not find any with >100$ drop. Last one in 2016 was after POTUS was choosen. With my natural bullish bias it was a good idea to place this long term analysis because every time I wanted to place a buy order I had this chart in my mind. Good Luck
Trade active
⋅
My Oct plan predicted that POG will test 38%, middle KC and that red bearish trend line. With current setup applied allmost perfectly to those technical points rejecting only one channel down (205-220) and stopping on 239 which was 78% of 205-360 daily fibonacci swing. With fundamental view for cheap dollar gold make take some really nice race creating bullish flag on monthly chart, but it is really long term view for next few years (a new GOLD cycle). Good luck
Thank you Mario. I find their analyses very useful as well.
fhsk2001
⋅
We expect retrace, but gold could on the edge of cliff to start falling. Today data on GDP will catalyze it.
Mario_PLN
⋅
@fhsk2001, monthly candle is acting like bear, but it needs to finish that way. Few day without any bullish fundamentals can do that. But we are on GOLD so need to watch out every day. If 61% will not hold that then intraday zigzags will push it to 220-240 area extended from 38% which is on 250 area where strong demand should occur for keeping it over bearish trendline.
fhsk2001
⋅
@Mario_PLN, I am subscribed to one site (preciousmetalsforecast.com/) for predicting the macro trend and according to it the bottom is at 1240 spot till December, where new rally should start. More or less I always doubt in his prediction, but in most of the times they are correct. The problem is the time frame and how properly to enter in the macro-trend due its wave-like micro-structure.
Mario_PLN
⋅
@fhsk2001, so there will be a consolidation in current range till december...That is possible for them to gain strenght for next swing.
fhsk2001
⋅
@Mario_PLN, I will see. In fact there is about 27$ to 1240. Not soo much for such a long time.
Mario_PLN
⋅
@Stoyan, try to open it: (tradingview.com/chat/pm_NE0Hk5CbdO81DKhR/). It is a link for a chat with Ilia me and other Lady from invcom. It looks like You are not responding to my Private messages here, maybe its turned off in settings or something...
fhsk2001
⋅
@Mario_PLN, I sent a test message and wait for response.