Blue box will be deciding factor for Gold in long run. I don't think this recession Gold is going to go up, unless it breaks the trend. In the last 3 recessions (1990, 2001, 2008-9) only the 2001 recession saw a gold rise, and even that was not too impressive. On a longer time span, there have been only 4 instances in the last 100 years where gold rose prominently and would have been a great investment.
Watch for blue trend lines. Longer trend lines in red. 2018 year end to 2019 first quarter would be deciding factor for new trend of Gold.