vlad.adrian
Long

Gold will go through the roof

COMEX:GC1!   GOLD FUTURES
759 5 17
I believe Gold             is going to go through the roof in the coming months. Anywhere over 1180 I will be a strong believer in gold             . Under this level, I will still look for longs as long as we stay in the drawn rectangle , but of course, I will be more cautious.

This is a corrective double bottom , or at least that's how it looks till now. Corrective double bottoms usually explode, on any longer timeframe. They are perfect levels to enter for the long term. Of course, what looked like a perfect corrective double/tripple bottom in mid 2011 didn't work out, and I mean perfect only by analysing its structure.

There are two ways of looking at the current double bottom . If we look from the all time high till now, it looks like the end of a serious downtrend. But if we zoom out a little, we can see a very big uptrend in gold             , and this double bottom will start looking like the end of a serious correction. Anyway you look, it points to higher prices.

Looking at the oscillators, there is a massive bullish divergence on all three of them, MACD lines, MACD histogram and FI             . The FI             is getting to a level where previous minor (1-4 weeks) corrections ended (red small rectangles).

Take a loot at the volume and its moving average . Compare the levels of the first leg of the double bottom with the levels of the second leg. The difference is very visible. There was little selling during the second leg. The main selling was done during the first. Unfortunately, at the second bounce off 1180$, the volume is not stronger than usual, as it says in the books.

Now compare the two patterns drawn, the first double then tripple bottom with the current double bottom . Look at the difference in divergences. The small divergences seen in 2012 did push the price higher, but not enough for a rally. The current divergences look very strong and IMO are likely to push the price of Gold             near the all time high.

As long as price stays in the arc drawn, that means above 1180$, I remain extra bullish on Gold             . Allthough the daily pattern shows a perfect entry point (I will draw a chart after I finish this one) the market can act weird and whipsaw traders, so I give some space for wiggles.

The targets are very far away, and there is no way to tell where this chart is going. The imediate resistance level is at 1400$, but if I am right about this, Gold             should not hesitate there. If there will be strong hesitation there, it won't necessarily mean that I was wrong on the long term, but more downside should be expected and the long position should be liquidated until a clearer view comes up. Next important level is at 1534$, and there we should see a pullback, as it is a very strong resistance area . The Double bottom target is at 1700$, but these targets, either it be H&S targets, Double bottom targets and so on, they are all just indicative, and should always be taken into consideration with the closest structure support or resistance. In this case, we have the psychological factor at 1700$, and even better, a structure resistance at 1800$ with the psychological factor included. I realise the difference is a bit big, 100$, but keep in mind that this is the weekly, and 100$ moves during a week have been seen before.

I will manage this trade with daily entries, and I will keep my long position until the weekly screams at me to sell.
I have said it twice, and I will say it again; as long as we stay over 1180$!!!! I am a bull on Gold             . There is no weekly confirmation yet, but the daily looks very good.

justatrader PRO
2 years ago
What's the exit strategy if there is a drop below $1180?? Because $960 - $980 is a region that is ripe from the monthly charts... and markets do have a good sense of history.
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vlad.adrian PRO justatrader
2 years ago
There is no exit strategy cause below 1260 there is no trade. I linked a daily chart, and I will exit and enter according to the daily. By exiting I mean: if we go below 1260 I will close my entire position and wait for another oportunity; if it goes up, and I see a daily bearish setup, I will close minimum 50% of the existing position, but as long as I'm on profit, I want to keep a part of the long opened. Till 1180 my bullish bias stands, and I will be looking for daily entries. Below 1180, I would have to see a weekly setup in order to go long. Same goes for canceling my bullish bias; a weekly bearish setup at 1400, not a daily. As long as gold stays above 1260, there will be an opened trade.
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LEONES PRO
2 years ago
I agree with you but I would set the target at 1400
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vlad.adrian PRO LEONES
2 years ago
Thank you! Yes, as I said, the first resistance is at 1400 and according to how it's going to look there, I am going to keep my bias close out my positions and wait.
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LEONES PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
ok so we are on the same page
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