This_Guhy
Short

Gold Futures Volume Quickpost

COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
I have been worried about this uptrend for a while and now I have a nice intra-week candle close to look at. The three day candle conculuded on COMEX and traders painted the highest 3 day volume on Gold of all time and the candle appears to be showing a strong reversal at 1600. The volume suggest to me that they are no buyers at that level to sustain a continued uptrend but plenty of sellers.

The first black box on the volume shows the wick that started the topping behavior of the last all time high. There was some trashing around that set a higher high of around 5 bucks and then the long term reversal pattern began and continued for over a year. My first thought is we could be looking at a head and shoulders develop on Gold with a neckline at around 1450 and it might take nine months to a year to fully play out. The falling wedge we just had was the left shoulder, we are in a head pattern right now that could take 3 months to play out, consolidate at the neckline and then pop up a right shoulder. Of course, it is still way early and ye olde Elliot Wave ABC correction could also take place.

The chart below suggest we might see the ABC correction sooner as opposed to later. We have hidden bearish divergence peak to peak between 2011 and 2019, and we are developing classig bearish divergence within this current peak (shown in blue) if you 1) include the wick or 2) consider the body and we established a same high with a lower RSI . Having classic divergence within a peak that is already showing classic divergence from another peak is one of the strongest signals that this current top is about to complete and the overall trend, downward is going to continue.
Here is a quick example of classic divergence within a peak.
Here is a really long distribution period were price had a double top and an exhaustive high for the bulls on the volume peak to peak in red and hidden divergence within the peak again in blue. Very powerful downtrend ensues.
We have had 15 year consolidation patterns on assets before. No reason to think we won't have another.
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