Ok so I pretty much nailed the bottom call of the November low but thought that was it. I was wrong, we broke the lows, but the move we have had below these lows in recent weeks has a lot of momentum to it, looks like a climax panic selling bottom to me.
I may end up being too early calling a bottom here but I don't think I will be wrong in that the eventual bounce will be face melting.
My account has been smashed and now slightly down on the year. I feel very frustrated and all my friends are the same, looking lower, thinking if 1500's is possible. Sentiment is so bad so I think we MUST be close to a bottom. So I am countering my emotions and going with what I see on the charts.
Justifications:
1.) We have a weekly TD9 buy signal (downside momentum running out into a major support level.)
2.) We are at major support both technical and phycological as this was the level gold was at before the corona crash. Considering the mathematical trap the central bankers are in and that we are in a depression, this is insane! Daily candles are also getting smaller, suggesting the sellers are exhausting themselves.
3.) The Bollinger bands show that the price is overextended to the downside. The weekly candle almost opened below and moves waaay below. This is a reversal signal. Note the inverse of this happened when gold topped.
4.) Trendline support of the lows.
5.) Support zone is in confluence with key Fibonacci levels. the .618 of the move from the Corona crash lows to the Aug highs AND the .382 of the move from the 2015 low to the ATH.
6.) Obviously, many stops below 1700 so I think this could be viewed as a liquidity engineering event where the bankers have pushed it below this level to get out of their short positions/ fill longs into this engineered selling. If weekly candle closes above 1700 then this scenario looks more likely. A daily candle moving up and closing above 1700 would therefore be a good long entry.
7.) The yield on the US 10 year bond is is a critical level where if it climbs much higher it is in danger of crashing the general stock market. The yield has also arrived at the exact breakdown level from when the waterfall-like corona sell off began.
8.) We have seen pullbacks in Nickel, copper, other base metals which algo's recognized as inflation indicators... because well, they are real inflation vs the govt's bullshit CPI numbers. So this is a leading indicator that might catalyze a sell off in yields. As the yields sell off real interest rates decrease which is bullish for gold.
9.) Lots of idiots saying Bitcoin is taking golds value and that it is going to 0. This is delusional. Gold has been money for several thousand years, bitcoin has been an experiment for a little over a decade. I know which one I would rather bet on.
10.) the GDX, gold miners index, is currently resting on the break out level of the 7 year bear market. On the lower time frames, it appears to be painting a diamond bottom reversal pattern. The majors are also outperforming juniors and gold (see the GDX/GOEX ratio). General investors must be noticing that Newmont currently has a close to 4% dividend. Gold, and miners of other metals are about to attract flows from asset managers, generalist investors, pension funds etc. Maybe I am crazy but I think this is the start of a big move.
I may end up being too early calling a bottom here but I don't think I will be wrong in that the eventual bounce will be face melting.
My account has been smashed and now slightly down on the year. I feel very frustrated and all my friends are the same, looking lower, thinking if 1500's is possible. Sentiment is so bad so I think we MUST be close to a bottom. So I am countering my emotions and going with what I see on the charts.
Justifications:
1.) We have a weekly TD9 buy signal (downside momentum running out into a major support level.)
2.) We are at major support both technical and phycological as this was the level gold was at before the corona crash. Considering the mathematical trap the central bankers are in and that we are in a depression, this is insane! Daily candles are also getting smaller, suggesting the sellers are exhausting themselves.
3.) The Bollinger bands show that the price is overextended to the downside. The weekly candle almost opened below and moves waaay below. This is a reversal signal. Note the inverse of this happened when gold topped.
4.) Trendline support of the lows.
5.) Support zone is in confluence with key Fibonacci levels. the .618 of the move from the Corona crash lows to the Aug highs AND the .382 of the move from the 2015 low to the ATH.
6.) Obviously, many stops below 1700 so I think this could be viewed as a liquidity engineering event where the bankers have pushed it below this level to get out of their short positions/ fill longs into this engineered selling. If weekly candle closes above 1700 then this scenario looks more likely. A daily candle moving up and closing above 1700 would therefore be a good long entry.
7.) The yield on the US 10 year bond is is a critical level where if it climbs much higher it is in danger of crashing the general stock market. The yield has also arrived at the exact breakdown level from when the waterfall-like corona sell off began.
8.) We have seen pullbacks in Nickel, copper, other base metals which algo's recognized as inflation indicators... because well, they are real inflation vs the govt's bullshit CPI numbers. So this is a leading indicator that might catalyze a sell off in yields. As the yields sell off real interest rates decrease which is bullish for gold.
9.) Lots of idiots saying Bitcoin is taking golds value and that it is going to 0. This is delusional. Gold has been money for several thousand years, bitcoin has been an experiment for a little over a decade. I know which one I would rather bet on.
10.) the GDX, gold miners index, is currently resting on the break out level of the 7 year bear market. On the lower time frames, it appears to be painting a diamond bottom reversal pattern. The majors are also outperforming juniors and gold (see the GDX/GOEX ratio). General investors must be noticing that Newmont currently has a close to 4% dividend. Gold, and miners of other metals are about to attract flows from asset managers, generalist investors, pension funds etc. Maybe I am crazy but I think this is the start of a big move.