Thanks for the views, likes, and the rare comment. I am sharing this for my own education, to enable easy tracking and accountability for whether my targets were near or way off.
I'm a fan of gold, but am not willing to buy physical gold in the current environment. At the moment I am looking to enter short (paper trade only) to exit around $1218 then enter long (real trade) once sub-wave 1 has formed up, sub-wave 2 retraced, and then price action broken the sub-wave 1 high with conviction (targeting around the 1:1 wave A extension) and then looking to enter a short position (real trade) for the full extent of wave (5) down to ~$1196 (or lower).
After the small move down to $1218 the daily RSI will be ~30 which would support the view that there will be a bounce of some degree. As long as the top of that bounce is below $1236 it would be the sub-wave 2 extreme that will form the basis for the wave (5) decline to sub $1200 prices. The full intermediate degree move would then form the primary degree wave 1 down in my sub $600 scenario for the next few years.
If price breaks above $1236 in the next week then I will have to re-assess as it would invalidate a lot of my targets. Once correction - the wave (4) extreme is $1235.3 as opposed to the 1234 amount written by me on the chart)
Also if it is a ascending triangle it needs to go up (with the fledge edge)
Liegebeest
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Why do you mention the 4 is a throw over? that is only common with triangles in the E wave. I see here a wave 4?
flyinkiwi10
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@Liegebeest, Hi, because I don't see the ascending triangle as a 3,3,3,3,3 pattern ABCDE, but rather as a smaller zig-zag that is part of wave (4) in a 5 wave down move. Please have a look at my more medium term silver outlook for my larger-degree wave count. If it was an ascending triangle, it may have already broken out downwards (unless I re-draw the trend-lines) as triangles are not always bullish - but tend of be continuation patterns. A continuation in the current market would be a continuation downwards. In this environment, an ascending triangle would actually imply strong selling pressure. Triangles are most commonly found in wave B, wave 4, or the last X in a combination of zig-zags - by my count this is a wave (4). If it was a B wave triangle, my view would also be short-term bearish (but without expecting such a price decline).
This is just my view, and I am not an expert. Again, this is shared mostly for my own education - as TA has become somewhat of a preoccupation of mine of late. Maybe the term "throw-over" was not appropriate as yes, they tend to be associated with ABCDE patterns. So, correction accepted, thanks.