Gold (now at 1241) has made a triple bottom around 1183 (see weekly chart and daily chart) and started a corrective rally as usual. At this stage, there's still no sign of the typical set of waves that mark the end of the major downtrend started in Sept 2011.
Hence, Gold should make a new top in the area 1249-52 or even 1263-64 before resuming the downtrend to the area 1164-1154 and lower.
HOWEVER, please read the "NOTE" below: there could be a surprise.
TARGETS
first up to likely: area 1249-52 possibly: area 1257-60 maybe: 1268-69
then down to likely: area 1164-1154 possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target) maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)
ELLIOTT WAVES
GOLD is almost done with the very minor wave 4 upwards (1-hour chart and 4-hour chart). The new wave down following this temporary top should form the smaller wave 5 of the larger wave 3 (daily chart).
This little wave 5 should break through the support at 1182-83 and move down to the first of the targets above mentioned (area 1164-1154).
By The Way:
NOTE:
If the present rally tops much higher than predicted (at 1290-93 or even 1318-21, quite possible), then the wave count will need a re-assessment.
If this scenario occurs wave 3 (bottom right of the daily chart) will also take the name of "wave d" and this would extend target of the recent uptrend up to 1290-1321 to form "wave e".
"Wave e" would be followed by the very last leg down - in 5 smaller waves - to form the historical low (major wave 4, weekly chart) at 1064-1054, $1089 or $1043-$1032 and will mark the end of the 3 years downtrend.
Hence, if this scenario materialises, GOLD would need few more weeks to reach the bottom of major wave 4 (up to the last week of Dec 14).
The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable.
If all this is true, a very major uptrend should then follow.
I am long already, there was a major fib cluster/ harmonic pattern around 1187-1208, I suspect this large triangle may be forming a wave e now and everybody is bearish gold because silver has broken support. Be interesting to see how price reacts at the horizontal levels you have shown on your chart... Triple bottom? maybe... but it really is a triangle as you have shown - I kind of agree with PeterBourne on the 3B issue although that would also confirm a triangle breakout
Olu
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I agree with the ultimate bearishness idea. By the way price is down here where we are after a breakdown from a triple bottom. If this price action repeats itself it will go sub 1000
PeterBourne
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Too soon to call a triple bottom
Needs to break out above 1370 with volume
Could still break down below 1280. Although the last breakdown below this level was a false breakdown and took a lot of long stops out and caught a lot of short sell orders out.
The next day reversal above 1280 signaled this 'bear' market rally