ucsgears

GC/GLD - Save this Chart

COMEX:GC1!   GOLD FUTURES
1854 47 26
If GC/GLD doesn't breakout within 2016 - I will stop posting charts. I do not have any faith in FIAT currencies. If there is anything i believe in is the currency will have to get destroyed. JUST NOT YET. But beware.....

Doesn't mean that I will trade only bullish here, The Gold             will get volatile, creating a lot of opportunities. AND we rock and roll with the market. catch the mid swing and flip it back and forth, within the channel.

There may be a quick flush - Trapping shorts .

This is multiyear plan. Not interested in what is happening tomorrow.
Comment: HOPE, People are still aware of this chart. Got 13 more months
Comment: 1 More year to go. Still Range bound. For smart Options traders, they can trade PCS / naked puts (go 1.5 SD out) and wait to get assigned, reducing a over all trade cost.
Comment: Hitting the Channel, Expect a consolidation on daily chart to digest the huge move. Keeping an eye on Gold.
Comment: Shorter Term Setup -
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Comment: Future Indicator release -
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It does produce some random noise, still working on optimizing.
Comment: Foresight of the drop, Pointed out a good short coming up last week. All with the Help of MATH.

How to hedge main position against counter trend move with options? Its called Defending with Options. Google it, there are people who did some nice videos. Worth building the basics.
Comment: Options Defense ---> banking credits. Although Caution on your defenses, Flag pattern forming.
Comment: Just an update to show the indicators on the original chart
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Comment: I guess, I am done defending the idea, Now the chart reality has been painted..
i have diff hypothesis
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+1 Reply
tend to agree more w your view.

What makes a market!
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jangseohee SPYderCrusher
Hi SPYderCrusher, bearish view or bullish view?
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bearish
+1 Reply
ucsgears PRO jangseohee
There is a possibility for a drop, but may not spend a long time there... Why? There will be measures to cut productions - Supply narrow down and Demand being the same, can cause the rally to begin. Infact, All rally begins with ripping trend traders, stabilize and march.
+2 Reply
this trade has been a failure for years in spite (or perhaps despite) the low correlation of returns between minors and PoG but I like the idea of finding the highest operating leverage miners and longing them on an sustainable gold uptrend, bc they will have the most meteoric margin and top/bottom line sales rises period over period.
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jangseohee jangseohee
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The USD is unlikely to fail anytime soon -- of course no one can predict the future so I'm willing to change my view if necessary rather than be dogmatic.

Pro $ Views:

Dollar is backed by real assets --

-- taxing authority over US (and even global) citizens
-- huge amt of natural resources (largest natural gas and oil reserves in the world)
-- tremendous influence over global resources and politics
-- strongest military in the world
-- among the most modern and sophisticated industries -- pharma, telecom
-- among the highest per capita incomes, quality of life, lifespan, literacy
-- legal protections for innovators / capitalistic incentive to innovate

Based on my perception of these the dollar isn't going anywhere, nor will gold supplant it.

WRT inflation, over time that has been the norm so a fair assumption. In the mean time, dollars have *long since* ceased to function as a store of value but rather as a medium of exchange. You use dollars to purchase current consumption (food, shelter etc) or exchange for cash flow producing investment for longterm consumption (investments). All dollars should go towards investments, and more liquid investments can be sold to fund current consumption if need be.

I am not saying I politically agree with this 100% but this has been the role of fiat currency for bordering on 2 decades now. so IMV dollars are either spend right away or invested, the investments are the savings, there is no need for anything more than a "rainy day" fund of cash sitting around. And investments outperform inflation, so that isnt a big concern.
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ucsgears PRO SPYderCrusher
I may partially agree with the Dollar backed by real assets.

Its not just the Dollars, one have to look at. There are things like, stimulus programs around the world, Market uncertanity - expanding volatile range, most importantly the basic supply and demand, Currency flow, International economics, etc..

IMO, Demand for GOLD is likely to increase. GOLD is still the main form of investments perceived by other countries and USA (some may not think so, I am not even gonna try convincing them), this is not likely to change for a few decades. And will change, if the FIAT Currencies can prove its worth.

Gold does not have much demand in the consumer market, when compared to its investment demands. We have seen exploding Dollar or any currency in the past, what followed is a lesson. Because of a simple co-relation, one's strength = other weakness, this will add a lot of pressure for any gov to fight the deflation (increase in currency value) by a QE or other means. Why do they have to fight it? Decrease in exports(income), while increase in imports(spending) on trades.
IMO, the current run in Dollar is backed by the stronger economy data, and ANTICIPATION of Rates going higher.
+3 Reply
jangseohee ucsgears
i don know how much Gold China has bought todate :-)
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ucsgears PRO jangseohee
None - Doesn't mean they won't ... :))
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ucsgears PRO jangseohee
China has lower gold reserve, than the dollar reserve. Q1 - When did China start buying Dollars? Q2 - Did China ever had high Gold reserve?
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jangseohee ucsgears
no idea
even if they have the higher reserve of gold, they wont make it official?
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ucsgears PRO jangseohee
Here is the reserve data - I can't guarantee its accuracy. - China reports when they feel like.... ;)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gold-reserves
+2 Reply
*when and what :D
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ucsgears PRO SPYderCrusher
true....
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let me see if I can find this research for you....but if you look at a weekly gold continuous contract chart go back to Dec 1999 -- there was a 3 wk spike where gold ran 30% (!!).

the news at the time (which is the hard part to find since before the google cataloging of everything era) was released that triggered the spike had to do with central banks (ceasing?) repo and loan of gold at the time. That singular shift basically sparked the decade long run to 2011.

In any event, that is something to watch for too
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good comments -- one thing to add is strong dollar is functional equivalent of a backdoor rate raise too so I also interpreted that as giving the fed some leeway on timing of raise.

plus a 25 bps raise (this is a little off topic) to me is just like a token gesture -- I feel like the market has basically prices it in mostly theyve been dangling it in front of our faces for last few meetings.
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ucsgears PRO SPYderCrusher
I still foresee something like the Jangseohee Daily DXY chart below to happen, even if the Feds raise the rates.
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definitely -- king dollar isnt over yet. Euro problems are too systemic in nature for this powerful trend to be reversing just yet
+1 Reply
another view of mine
Dollar index will make another HH but this time MACD making a LH?
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+1 Reply
definitely can see that
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
Definitely the most probable scenario.
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Nice analysis - thanks for what you have been sharing with us,
+1 Reply
it is weird, i see silver to 8 bucks
SI1!, the price ahead
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GcNaif MOD jangseohee
i would love if gold could reach 1200 b4 reversing ,but current pa is showing the down direction ,,,,but its the asian session ,,,,,,london session should give us the direction .
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To early to Look for trend reversal, unless you want to get Gold Bullion / 24k Gold bars 999.99
+1 Reply
haha doesnt seem weird to me

gold next target 1040s
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silver next target 12.60s
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claydoctor SPYderCrusher
Missing gold fact, re china, reserves low, but they are smart... they bought most of the major gold mines in Canada, leaving it in the ground until they need or want to bring it out. The China Gold reserves are in the ground in Canada.
+1 Reply
November 2016
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PolarSolar PRO PolarSolar
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2use PolarSolar
I cant find this author Sergey51RU - how come?
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Nice to see people post long term plays/plans ... thanks
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Great chart. Working out well. Gonna save this for sure.
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Can you please post the update version of the original chart?
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The Monthly chart is not matured enough to make any changes to it
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2use ucsgears
Can you post here maybe a screenshot of how the indicators look to this point (they are not shown in the published chart when it is updated with Play)
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2use 2use
Thanx for the updated. Is that a divergence i see on the squeeze indicator? bottom there is higher
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RSI breakout with confirmed divergence in Momentum.
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2use ucsgears
You are staying with the projection of a 2 year run? I thought it was a bit steep for my taste. With this, i can imagine it going even higher ( to make an even higher large scale top)
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When I posted, It was a 10 year plan. Rolling in some portion monthly gains to a different account and accumulate. Most of them were. PCS expiring worthless. Eventually some got exercised. Those are the ones i am holding and Managing based on short term etc. Its the hedge fund way of managing, it can be applied to small accounts if you can handle the mental stress. It can get stressful at times.
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2use ucsgears
So you manage long term and short term. I understand the stress it may take
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Position trade long term and hedge smaller moves.
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26 agreed with me.... Surprisingly!!!
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make that 27! Anyway, excellent call
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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
(i'd already thumbs upped the chart, so stuck at 26, but you know what I meant)
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ucsgears PRO SPYderCrusher
Thanks. I was being sarcastic with that 26. Sometimes, i feel like, Less agree!, better chances, the move is happening.
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