For this analysis , I have used only the MACD , RSI , ttm_squeeze and some regression analysis.
In the next couple of days I will post a few extras that confirm this analysis as monthly cycle analysis of the gold chart and why I think gold is in big trouble for the next 2-3 years.
First of all let's start with a top down approach.
2M and Monthly charts look horrible.
The MACD has crossed on the monthly and is about to cross on the 2M together with a bearish squeeze.
Thats a recipe for disaster for gold bulls. I am sorry. It doesn't look good in any shape or form. Cant sugar code it. Its plain bad.
Now the good things are shorter term duration. The weekly chart has seen some recent upside , but its about to end as well since it almost reaching its 50 RSI and gets to the "sell" point this rally.
The weekly is in a primary downtrend still since its below the 0 macd line but because of the crossover we have seen this bounce.
Now the daily chart is bullish. No argue about that. But even the daily chart shows signs of exhaustion as its RSI gets overbought plus gold can't seem to be able to get out of that zone 1235-1245.
I will start shorting gold once we see a smoothing of the macd on the daily chart and even a crossover .
That will tell me that gold is about to return below the 1200 level.
Now a few more things : 1) I don't pay close attention to what the stock market is doing relatively to gold , because they are pretty much independent .
The only asset class that I give weigh in my analysis for the gold is the dollar and what the dollar does. I don't even care about raising interest rates.
The dollar has an extremely bullish pattern as well which is also a big big trouble for gold.
In the next 2-3 years I see gold hitting its bottom of the regression line slope at 750-800 level.
What I think ?
bottom line is the following ----> Gold starts retracing back for the next 8 weeks till the end of the year and its reaching the 1190-1200 level again .
After that we will normally see a "weak" rally (in the January , early February period) and then a big decline will start again .
For the past 7-8 years gold always rallies in the beginning of the year . If gold struggles and doesn't rally at all in January then that's the biggest red flag and its heading down fast.
1124 is a big level. If that breaks to the downside gold is done.
I will post more charts in the futures concerning this matter , why the dollar and gold relationship is the only one we should focus on and why someone shouldn't deal with "safe heaven" stuff , stock market correlations and raising interest rates.
Europe is in big trouble as well , euro is heading down which is a boost for the dollar and drag down factor for gold.
Thats my 2 cents.
In the next couple of days I will post a few extras that confirm this analysis as monthly cycle analysis of the gold chart and why I think gold is in big trouble for the next 2-3 years.
First of all let's start with a top down approach.
2M and Monthly charts look horrible.
The MACD has crossed on the monthly and is about to cross on the 2M together with a bearish squeeze.
Thats a recipe for disaster for gold bulls. I am sorry. It doesn't look good in any shape or form. Cant sugar code it. Its plain bad.
Now the good things are shorter term duration. The weekly chart has seen some recent upside , but its about to end as well since it almost reaching its 50 RSI and gets to the "sell" point this rally.
The weekly is in a primary downtrend still since its below the 0 macd line but because of the crossover we have seen this bounce.
Now the daily chart is bullish. No argue about that. But even the daily chart shows signs of exhaustion as its RSI gets overbought plus gold can't seem to be able to get out of that zone 1235-1245.
I will start shorting gold once we see a smoothing of the macd on the daily chart and even a crossover .
That will tell me that gold is about to return below the 1200 level.
Now a few more things : 1) I don't pay close attention to what the stock market is doing relatively to gold , because they are pretty much independent .
The only asset class that I give weigh in my analysis for the gold is the dollar and what the dollar does. I don't even care about raising interest rates.
The dollar has an extremely bullish pattern as well which is also a big big trouble for gold.
In the next 2-3 years I see gold hitting its bottom of the regression line slope at 750-800 level.
What I think ?
bottom line is the following ----> Gold starts retracing back for the next 8 weeks till the end of the year and its reaching the 1190-1200 level again .
After that we will normally see a "weak" rally (in the January , early February period) and then a big decline will start again .
For the past 7-8 years gold always rallies in the beginning of the year . If gold struggles and doesn't rally at all in January then that's the biggest red flag and its heading down fast.
1124 is a big level. If that breaks to the downside gold is done.
I will post more charts in the futures concerning this matter , why the dollar and gold relationship is the only one we should focus on and why someone shouldn't deal with "safe heaven" stuff , stock market correlations and raising interest rates.
Europe is in big trouble as well , euro is heading down which is a boost for the dollar and drag down factor for gold.
Thats my 2 cents.