timwest

BITCOIN - Weekly 2013-Present Is mimicking the Gold Bull Market

COMEX:GC1!   GOLD FUTURES
879 23 21
Perhaps Bitcoin will continue to follow
the pattern charted out by the Gold             Market

Compare the bull market move in Gold Futures            
on a Monthly Basis from 1975-1987 to the
Weekly Chart of Bitcoin from 2013-present.

As we already know - this is PURE ENTERTAINMENT:
Markets Mimicking Each Other
(In reality - it's just a chart of enthusiasm)

I hope you enjoy how similar they are, with highs and lows a similar size and percentage retracement of previous moves. So, if Bitcoin follows along the path charted by Gold             , then it will drift sideways to lower for the balance of 2014 and then drift higher into the first quarter of 2015. Upside to 600 and downside to about 350 in that time frame.

But - I'm just showing you this... I'm not banking on it!

Tim 12:07AM EST Tuesday, August 19, 2014 466.06 last BTCUSD             BITSTAMP

MONTHLY GC1!             22DAY CHART ON BOTTOM, WEEKLY BTCUSD             BITSTAMP 5DAY.
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snowman
2 years ago
Yes - thank you for posting those charts. They are even more similar then I thought when placed like that below each other
But in terms of time I feel both are about to face a major decline with Bitcoin probable ending up valueless - a 21st century ' Tulip'
Reply
timwest PRO snowman
2 years ago
I believe Bitcoin has a lot of value in that it is driving change in the way banking is done in this world. Banking is mostly a parasite on the system, selectively overgrowing certain parts of the economy that bankers choose to grow by lending to it or selectively crashing others when they choose not to lend. Bankers create and break cycles in the economy and market. Bankers charge a fee on money every time it is touched or moved. It is an expensive system and they have abused their position extensively through excessive fees which has bled the system slowly along the way. Bitcoin is doing for banking what Craiglist has done for Classified Ads in local newspapers. It has the capacity to overwhelm this not-so-wonderful-current-system. But with that said, I don't know what the right price is for Bitcoin, but I like what it does. It helps two anonymous people exchange funds seemlessly and fast with very low risk and very low cost. That is a great thing. Change is only painful for those that benefit from the "old way" of doing things. We all "collectively" stand to benefit from Bitcoin's impact on the world. I'd suggest reading anything by Marc Andreesen on the topic of Bitcoin. He is the smartest person in the room on the topic. Follow him at Twitter https://twitter.com/pmarca @PMARCA
+1 Reply
timwest PRO timwest
2 years ago
Andreessen (spelling correction)
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snowman timwest
2 years ago
Whilst I agree 100% with your sentiment. In reality I do not see this happening with BitCoin.
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timwest PRO snowman
2 years ago
Right, it is parsing words and projecting 'value' way into the future, which is extremely difficult. Tulips have some value, but certainly not even 1% of the peak price they fetched. Thanks for the enjoyable trip into clarifying and typing out my thoughts, which provided some value to me too. Thanks.
+1 Reply
Muwa
2 years ago
So, it is likely that the all time high of 1100 will be retested in 2015 or 2016?
Reply
timwest PRO Muwa
2 years ago
Possibly. But you have to handle some downside risk too along the way....
+1 Reply
timwest PRO Muwa
2 years ago
The chart I have listed above doesn't support 1100 being retested at all.... simply because time runs out on the analogy. Bitcoin likely just slowly fades to a lower and lower price over time.
Reply
Muwa timwest
2 years ago
Well, we know that Gold retested its old bubble highs. Since bitcoin is behaving somewhat like Gold but on a significantly faster track one could assume that it will get back to its ATH eventually.
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759820 PRO Muwa
2 years ago
well, the way i view bitcoin is its one of many new types of stocks called '' crypto-currency'' bitcoin has its place as the First but that does not mean it will be the most expensive because there are many great crypto-currency coins and ideas in the future to be holding onto bitcoin to the moon, I'd say bitcoin will find a steady price and hold until more adoption of the idea or it could be like the web bubble and could be called the crypto bubble
Reply
Muwa 759820
2 years ago
Perhaps, but so far none of the alternatives to bitcoin look like a real threat. Most of them are mainly pump and dump scams (if you think bitcoin is one, you'll be shocked at its alts).
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timwest PRO Muwa
2 years ago
Well, if the analog goes along the same path... it doesn't support a rally for many, many years... well beyond the time frame you are asking about. Maybe 6-8 years down the road it will catch up to the bull market in gold which overtook the highs. But who knows if Bitcoin has the staying power of gold. I haven't studied all the alternatives that have come along.
+1 Reply
ShahrozLodhi
2 years ago
nice one
+1 Reply
timwest PRO ShahrozLodhi
2 years ago
Thanks
Reply
759820 PRO
2 years ago
wonderful correlation Tim! I could see it going down for a false break out around the 78.6 retracment potentially
+1 Reply
timwest PRO 759820
2 years ago
Thanks waterboy
Reply
Great market cycle comparison sharing to twitter now!
+1 Reply
timwest PRO Kazonomics
2 years ago
Thanks! Was it popular?
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
Tim this is undoubtedly one of your best charts here.
Fits BTC like a glove :P
so far seems that BTC will not go above $500 if I compare it to Gold we will know in few weeks if thats the case
Reply
PeterBourne BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
I think I may have to revise my opinion on BTC. As to Gold it may be at or near a major long term support area of $1000.00. Its very oversold. We may have had or will have shortly, I believe , the final capitulating selloff , it is then when 'everybody has given up' on gold it may have a spectacular up move as we have seen in BTC.

Will BTC exceed $500 - probable not with its current move
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BuyBitcoin.WS PeterBourne
a year ago
yeh thats what im thinking too. I think BTC ATH was $504 and this was the weak retrace to it till $475 just like we had $1170/980, $680/660 pumps before.
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BuyBitcoin.WS
11 months ago
Tim I am keeping an eye on this chart and published an update for it:

http://prntscr.com/9khjdw

I think soon we will be heading like Gold did to 340-350 then go back up
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PooyaSalehipour
11 months ago
Very good pointview tim
Reply
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