PRS LIVE#1 v2 GOLD''S BEEN NAUGHTY & SANTA DOESN'T LIKE IT
SANTA HATES GOLD ANYWAY SO WHO CARES? BUT IF YOU'VE BEEN GOOD, IT'S GOING TO BE THE ABSOLUTELY PERFECT ENTRY FOR 2021'S TRADE OF THE YEAR. FIRST THOUGH, THIS IS A 6-MONTH MAP USING GC2!, WHICH IS 2ND MONTH FUTURES. CONSIDER THIS THE FIRST DRAFT FOR THE ACTUAL TRADE, WHICH I WILL MAKE A DERIVATIVE MAP FOR USING XAUUSD NOTE THAT GC2! PRICES HAS BEEN $25-$65 HIGHER THAN XAUUSD SINCE MARCH SO THIS IS NOT MEANT TO GUIDE SPOT TRADING.
DETAILS:
First, "LIVE TESTING" has stopped because my people and I have enough evidence to go live. That means that we have a defined process going forward that I truly believe - so help me God - will make money for people who follow ideas from PRS LIVE.
What happened with PRS LIVE #1 v1? It's obvious that I've been calling a for a gold rally for the last few months, but since 1838 I've been REALLY REALLY WRONG about how it would happen. What did I learn yet again? Why get cute with a big rally? I have originally planned to "HOLD TO 1900" to not screw with it and yet changed my mind "expecting 1 more dip" when there wasn't going to be one. What I have realized is which process will work best going forward. A few days ago, I wanted to take out the current trends thinking that was the problem for my misdirection. With the addition of historical pricing data before 1974, I've realized THAT WASN'T TRUE. I had kept searching for regression fractals and been over reliant on them lately. Regressions fractals DO WORK but must be "contained by status quo trends"s. Plus, I have also been UPDATING WAY TOO MUCH.
EXAMPLE: This is a perfect call from 6/19 that never got a chance to complete because I felt like I had to update continuously.
So I am not going to do that anymore. I am going to make a true 6-angle derivative map and let it stand for 3 weeks before making a new one. I've found that if I actually complete the 6-angle process before adjusting for regression fractals, that this yields a better result. This will be even better if I build it "from the ground up" like I did here for a short term futures map:
www.tradingview.com/...7-26-GC1-NOT-XAUUSD/
That means from here on out, I will present much fewer ideas but take more time on each one. This automatically means that PRS will not entertain short term trading ideas. The downside to this is that the average PRS LIVE trade will average 3 WEEKS OR LONGER. The upside is that PRS LIVE WILL BE TO NAIL 9 OUT OF EVERY 10 TRADING IDEAS.
Where are going from here? Gold has not topped, and should not top until mid-August to mid-September. After I finish with the next 40 day 6-angle derivative map built from the ground up, PRS LIVE #1 will be to short the August/September high. There will be 2 legs down after September 6th so we very early in the trade development. As usual, I will update with time. See you later, space cowboys.
DETAILS:
First, "LIVE TESTING" has stopped because my people and I have enough evidence to go live. That means that we have a defined process going forward that I truly believe - so help me God - will make money for people who follow ideas from PRS LIVE.
What happened with PRS LIVE #1 v1? It's obvious that I've been calling a for a gold rally for the last few months, but since 1838 I've been REALLY REALLY WRONG about how it would happen. What did I learn yet again? Why get cute with a big rally? I have originally planned to "HOLD TO 1900" to not screw with it and yet changed my mind "expecting 1 more dip" when there wasn't going to be one. What I have realized is which process will work best going forward. A few days ago, I wanted to take out the current trends thinking that was the problem for my misdirection. With the addition of historical pricing data before 1974, I've realized THAT WASN'T TRUE. I had kept searching for regression fractals and been over reliant on them lately. Regressions fractals DO WORK but must be "contained by status quo trends"s. Plus, I have also been UPDATING WAY TOO MUCH.
EXAMPLE: This is a perfect call from 6/19 that never got a chance to complete because I felt like I had to update continuously.
So I am not going to do that anymore. I am going to make a true 6-angle derivative map and let it stand for 3 weeks before making a new one. I've found that if I actually complete the 6-angle process before adjusting for regression fractals, that this yields a better result. This will be even better if I build it "from the ground up" like I did here for a short term futures map:
www.tradingview.com/...7-26-GC1-NOT-XAUUSD/
That means from here on out, I will present much fewer ideas but take more time on each one. This automatically means that PRS will not entertain short term trading ideas. The downside to this is that the average PRS LIVE trade will average 3 WEEKS OR LONGER. The upside is that PRS LIVE WILL BE TO NAIL 9 OUT OF EVERY 10 TRADING IDEAS.
Where are going from here? Gold has not topped, and should not top until mid-August to mid-September. After I finish with the next 40 day 6-angle derivative map built from the ground up, PRS LIVE #1 will be to short the August/September high. There will be 2 legs down after September 6th so we very early in the trade development. As usual, I will update with time. See you later, space cowboys.
Comment:
UPDATE 1: Santa hates gold is a reference to gold's weak seasonality in December. Gold, generally speaking, has 2 bottoms during the calendar year that are usually July and December.
Comment:
UPDATE 2: AGAIN THIS IS AN 8 HOUR BAR MAP FOR 6 MONTHS OUT THAT IS 100% NOT MEANT FOR SPOT TRADING. THERE IS ONLY 1 TRADE YOU CAN USE THIS MAP FOR, THAT IS TO BUILD SHORT POSITIONS 8/15 TO 9/5. THE COVER FOR THE FIRST LEG IS IS 9/20-10/10-ISH.
Comment:
COMMENT ON "LIVE TESTING".
FOR EVERY TRADE PRS "LIVE TESTING" HAS CLOSED SINCE #2, IT HAS BEEN A WINNER. The internet is forever, you can read them for evidence. Note that #1 WOULD HAVE ALSO made money if you took the options straddle (which is a bet on a huge move both ways).
Note that, #4 never got started bc gold didn't give us a discount for the entry. Hence #4 in live testing is dead as a trade idea. Live testing #10 has been closed early, it was a 3-4 month call for BTCUSD to go to all time highs. I don't have enough reason to really kill the trade early (despite my reasoning for cross-asset vol in October). I just don't want to divert my attention going forward and too many different things. The only 2 trades in live testing is the oil short and and the natural gas short.
Natural gas trade could've closed 1300 pips up, but I got arrogant and the widow-maker reminded me once again why it's called the widow-maker. Despite its move to 1.80 again, IT IS STILL FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED PROJECTED ROUTE in the most recent update. Further more, despite the sell and reentry, which occurred at the same price, if closed at its current price IT WOULD STILL BE A WINNER bc the averages of the 3 original short entries are even higher.
The oil short is underwater for the moment, but I fully expect to close that a winner in the coming weeks.
Essentially, in live testing, PRS has been hard core. Going forward though, entries will be listed IN EVERY TRADE IDEA for indisputable proof.
FOR EVERY TRADE PRS "LIVE TESTING" HAS CLOSED SINCE #2, IT HAS BEEN A WINNER. The internet is forever, you can read them for evidence. Note that #1 WOULD HAVE ALSO made money if you took the options straddle (which is a bet on a huge move both ways).
Note that, #4 never got started bc gold didn't give us a discount for the entry. Hence #4 in live testing is dead as a trade idea. Live testing #10 has been closed early, it was a 3-4 month call for BTCUSD to go to all time highs. I don't have enough reason to really kill the trade early (despite my reasoning for cross-asset vol in October). I just don't want to divert my attention going forward and too many different things. The only 2 trades in live testing is the oil short and and the natural gas short.
Natural gas trade could've closed 1300 pips up, but I got arrogant and the widow-maker reminded me once again why it's called the widow-maker. Despite its move to 1.80 again, IT IS STILL FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED PROJECTED ROUTE in the most recent update. Further more, despite the sell and reentry, which occurred at the same price, if closed at its current price IT WOULD STILL BE A WINNER bc the averages of the 3 original short entries are even higher.
The oil short is underwater for the moment, but I fully expect to close that a winner in the coming weeks.
Essentially, in live testing, PRS has been hard core. Going forward though, entries will be listed IN EVERY TRADE IDEA for indisputable proof.
Comment:
COMMENT ON CHART REPLAYS. Just because the chart WAS RIGHT doesn't mean there was a trade recommendation. CONVERSELY, just because the chart WAS WRONG, doesn't mean there was a trade recommendation. All the evidence is in the updates and notes. Again, the internet is forever "READ THEM" for evidence.
Comment:
UPDATE 3: This route in this chart (for this idea at top) I have complete faith in. It took 2 sleepless nights to get to. Despite only produced from "2 angles", the regressions were based originally in 9-DAY AND 18-DAY bars. The angles in between, has been observed, but not mapped. The next derivative map I make for 30-40 days out WILL INCLUDE ALL 6 ANGLES, FROM THE GROUND UP.
Comment:
UPDATE 4: PRS does not entertain short term trading, but just to be clear: for short term trades, hold is in buy the dip mode through Agust 20.
Comment:
Typo: gold not hold.
Comment:
UPDATE 5: Gold is currently in either a tripple top or quadrupple top formation either 3 big tops or four small tops with the third top being the highest one.
Comment:
UPDATE 6: When I said tripple ot quad top I am referring tp he next 15 days first. I will show in next D map.
Comment:
Typos! ... tripple or quad top ... referring to the next 15 days...
The 8 hour map at the top is showing quad top for 75 days. I wasn't talking about that in UPDATE 5.
The 8 hour map at the top is showing quad top for 75 days. I wasn't talking about that in UPDATE 5.
Comment:
FOR THE RECORD: Had previously called for bitcoin to hit 11,400 by 7/20, and then changed to 9900 for 7/27. Vindicated today at 11,400 before the smack down.
Anyways closed natural gas at 1.725 vs 1.847 average entries.
So two more major wins for PRS.
Anyways closed natural gas at 1.725 vs 1.847 average entries.
So two more major wins for PRS.
Comment:
NO derivative map yet bc I can't tell where this is going. Right now there are 4 routes that are all very different. I still think what ever happens will be a variation of this map at the top.
Comment:
This is not the favorite any more it is losing to the dark horse scenario.
Comment:
Wed 9:48 AM GO TO DARK HORSE POST.
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