Gold price is extremely overbought right now, there is need to correct RSI in short term. And as it has just break out the major resistance or trend line, it also need to come back a little bit. Last but not least, FED is trying to correct the expectation of rates cut, 50 bps cuts are not possible in current condition.
Long term (.=3 months), gold will still be a very good asset to hold. The fundamental of the gold is the real interest rate, which is the difference between risk free yield and inflation expectation. The treasury bond yield has dropped significantly since end of 2018, in short term it is not likely to keep such speed. And it the FED really cut the rates, it will be interesting to see where the inflation expectation to go.If the inflation expectation is going down faster than the risk free yield, it will not be a good sign for the gold price.By using TIPS and DXY as predictor, the current gold price is about even with estimated price. The short term price fluctuation is possible, and it may at most (95% of time) less than 10% over the fair value estimated by TIPS and DXY from history.
In long term, still buy gold, but there are some risk factors need to look close to, and I guess the gold will not increase at a little slower speed.
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Long term (.=3 months), gold will still be a very good asset to hold. The fundamental of the gold is the real interest rate, which is the difference between risk free yield and inflation expectation. The treasury bond yield has dropped significantly since end of 2018, in short term it is not likely to keep such speed. And it the FED really cut the rates, it will be interesting to see where the inflation expectation to go.If the inflation expectation is going down faster than the risk free yield, it will not be a good sign for the gold price.By using TIPS and DXY as predictor, the current gold price is about even with estimated price. The short term price fluctuation is possible, and it may at most (95% of time) less than 10% over the fair value estimated by TIPS and DXY from history.
In long term, still buy gold, but there are some risk factors need to look close to, and I guess the gold will not increase at a little slower speed.