I have a few possibilities now for #GDR, I know it looks great, up down or sideways. But really these are now roughly the options with the clearly communicated uncertainty and market reaction. First of all the original count and targets are still intact, in green, we are in a C wave or next impulse W3, and we have done a wave 1 and 2, still up we go from here. We need volume and clear impulse to move and prove this is the case in the next days/weeks ahead. This plan can alter depending on the intensity of the impulses, can truncate to an ending diagonal C wave with lower 5th wave targets, probably at the £3 mark at the end, or can extend as a higher high W3 into much higher W5 target than currently pictured. All depends on newsflow. The next two blue and orange options are based on the count that we have a failed impulse X wave instead of a wave 1 of the C. Hence the gap in price overreaction and massive sell out that is remarkable in volume. Any trader would sell off at the next possible gap approach if they had no SL in place and were not part of that sucker -50% SL fill. So following the X wave we do a Y in some kind of a triangle (blue) which shows quite a bullish response for the short term (another hype of expectations?). The orange squiggle is a possibility on a short term bad news (further delay or funding needs) to put a lower low and fill in that lower demand zone under 30p before turning into the upside. Not hard to imagine fundamentals supporting any of these setups and also that all these interim plays the SP could be going towards the previous or a new high when the dust settles. I still support long term holding if you can achieve a healthy average level. The blue squiggle is my favourite, although purely the volume pattern suggests the orange to play out - Now one thing about volume, is that when PIs pump up something based on rumours and hype without any substance, and with the level of PI allocation to this stock, there is no surprise it will fall big volume on unexperienced PI fear. The lack of II support on the SP volume is remarkable, therefore you cant really apply those volume triggers as you would normally do seeking for II activity. CEO comments were spot on to that. Leave the hype of expectations to the company based on their substantial news. imo of course and dyor
@rbr08, it needs time now and show a reversal pattern otherwise it will keep dropping on continuation of that sell volume. I was expecting a capitulation candle here but it still might appear on the weekly. It doesn't help if the placing offer is dragged for longer and the price splashed at this bottom. It needs to build up from here with buying volume, but until I see a reversal sign, I would like to forget about it. It can dragged and range sideways for long as well. Initially the initial main impulse would have an effect on the future movements, so this can be a fundamental question whether this sentiment can build back up for the company, and not everything is yet lost.
rbr08
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@tempertrade, thank you for your feedback. I'm really trying to work out whats my best plan of action as I have a +1GBP average - so quite in the hole. It seems that their covid PCR tests is dead so the big revenue generator is gone - added to reality of the impact of this placing, suggests we may not see the GBP1 again.
tempertrade
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@rbr08, I cant comment really on their fundamentals as it is always hard to judge those objectively and any move up could be based on high speculation. I would wait to see how it reacts down here in the next days/weeks, and see if any spike up would be sold into or shows further weakness. I took continuous profits all the way down but I kept a smaller position to hold onto with my average at 45p, so I am not that strongly affected. That Indian registration spike with volume, that kept me staying as that had no further follow on action and it was significant. And there is no SL option really in a gap down drop of 40% to protect your money.
This was always a high risk share to take, I cant suggest you to sell or hold really. It can easily turn up from here significantly or just range sideways or even go to bust, at this stage I need to see more price action to judge the next direction. This is definitely oversold, it is cheap to what it was averaged over a year, but it means nothing if it consolidates here and will get even cheaper.
rbr08
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@tempertrade, yes it was incredibly risky and I think I believed too much in our quality of products as opposed to the fundamentals and politics at play in the market - preventing market penetration. Its absolutely stomach turning to know I allowed this to happen - should have reduced my exposure back in March.
To average down is not really something I want to do at the moment. As you said I will wait it out and see how it plays out over the coming days/weeks.
Your comments and feedback is very much appreciated.
rbr08
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Your Orange option seems to have some similarities to what has happened over the last 2-3 months
tempertrade
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@rbr08, yes with about 2 months delay for the resetting and so it dropped lower on the lack of news - how low it goes is hard to tell, as much as how high this will reach now. Essentially it is kicking the same move it did on Covid 2020, the follow up on the same move. I dont actually believe in the company that much, but its a hype that was back then on nothing, and now is just another follow through. It is nowhere near finished looking on the volume. The same reason that kept me in it on the Indian approval volume, tiny but never actually followed through until now - I knew any small hype will push this significantly higher.
rbr08
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@tempertrade, I think the POC kit and AIHL kit does have some good potential. Here hoping they have learnt from their mistakes with converting sales on the lab assay, but I reckon we can see another big move up when the CE mark is confirmed (should be next week) and any announcement on commercial partners and sales. The AIHL kit is very much built for and by the NHS so news on the initial application of devices will propel more interest.
rbr08
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@tempertrade, Whats your thoughts now? I personally wasn't expecting this sustained volume.