AMEX:GDX   VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
2769 66 35
5 months ago
I will post this chart. Though I like the price action in gold             this is the only thing I don't like now.
It is affecting our DUST, JDST             trades. The miners doesn't want to fall. GDX             is just dancing on the upper trendline instead of breaking into it.
The volume is decreasing so it means to me there are less and less new buyers from day to day but the shareholders are not selling their shares.

I just want to warn you that this sector should be watched carefully. Someone posted a few days ago that miners are stretched too much above the 200 SMA . So it won't rally that much with gold             . This is very true.
Also it seems doesn't want to fall too much maybe just sideway consolidating. If gold             is falling more and GDX             is not moving just going sideways WE HAVE TO GET RID OF OUR DUST AND JDST             EVEN WITH LOSS.
:(
5 months ago
Comment: Dont touch your DUST and JDST position today.
5 months ago
Comment: Gold will fall tomorrow also, so there will be no problem wit hDUST and JDST. I just wanted to sign that we have to be very careful. If GDX is not falling with gold, and DUST is not flying- something is wrong and we dont want get trapped in the wrong position.
It's just a possibilty but we have to be ready for this also.
5 months ago
Comment: I would have liked to see GDX going back into the channel today. It didn't happen. It's not a tragedy.
MAybe we open with a huge gap down at 23.50 tomorrow and everything is cool. Maybe big players are selling their shares to the big guys. They dont want to sell in panic.
They postpone the panic by tomorrow....
5 months ago
Comment: ××× corrceted : Maybe big players are selling their shares to the small guys today.
5 months ago
Comment: GDX and GDXJ is having a fake move on low volume.
I think they will slam it tomorrow before the Brexit vote. And big players might be positioning in miner longs at the panic tomorrow or on Friday.
Gold also looks wants to break down to 1240 tonight or early tomorrow.
DaPappaBear
5 months ago
For clarification: from a Bullish DUST perspective, we want to see GDX and Gold to fall?
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chartwatchers PRO DaPappaBear
5 months ago
Yes its an inverse fund. Direxion daily gold miners bear 3x shares.
When miners are falling DUST is flying
+1 Reply
DaPappaBear chartwatchers
5 months ago
Thanks
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nnavarrete PRO
5 months ago
:( Thanks... I enjoyed the bumpy ride... going to close with a big loss... Im thing about waiting for tomorrow. my idea was to close on friday, anyway Im alrady on a big loss....
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xiiimik
5 months ago
By trading oil and oil stocks, I found out that stocks usually prefer to go sharply down on one to two days. Just my observations.
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MC2016 PRO
5 months ago
Thanks - this helps explain things. I couldn't work out why DUST was not flying as I'd expected with the downward movement of Gold. Perhaps some will start to sell GDX in the coming few days especially if a Bremain outcome looks more likely.
+1 Reply
TheFXNow
5 months ago
Lol I bought DUST call options a while ago. They are worthless now so no point in me selling them. Might as well hold them for the next 3 weeks until they expire and hope to get some magic movement
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dali77 PRO
5 months ago
Hi Arpi, you are absolutely right, I noticed today that DUST wasn't moving as it should... What's a good replacement for DUST if you want to short gold ? , Thank you
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bertcoin PRO
5 months ago
Yeah... I'm going to hold on to DUST until the 1240's on XAUUSD like your other idea. It's still moving up, just not as much as we'd like.
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I just pet my DUST. It is struggling with $11.06 resistance. Should break it within 20 minutes :)
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bertcoin PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
I see a ton of resistance 11.13 to 11.60 as well. If we can get through that resistance before Gold hits 1240 and/or Brexit, it might be a good gap up to .382 (12.57) or .5 (13.74) (Where it opened on the latest big drop from 16.5).
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By the way I see falling wedge on daily DUST chart. It is breaks $15 and later $17.4 - that will shoot it up big time.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
Chart on GDX. DUST is giving false signals when you are charting it. The whole chart is screwed because of the splits.
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pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
Thanks for the advice Arpi! I do charts on GDX and major mining stocks. I trade only mining stocks and ETF for now. Still learning...
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Billeci
5 months ago
Last week DUST and JDST seemed to find any reason to rally while Gold was pushing higher. Based on last week's movement, today should have been closer to a 20% pop due to the breakdown in gold. Instead, today's price action was definitely weak.
+2 Reply
pbartashevich PRO Billeci
5 months ago
Like Arpi explained in one of the comments before that is because big guys were selling mining shares first while keeping gold up artificially. I personally believe that they finished distributing mining shares last Friday. So this week will be a free fall. It is just started. All we need is good news tomorrow from Britain. GDX already broke its support just now. Technicals are terrible, can't go up.
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Billeci pbartashevich
5 months ago
Based on the behavior, it definitely makes sense (especially in lieu of the manipulation that takes place)!
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toothless
5 months ago
Of note, I picked up DUST on 6-6-2016 @10.78 and 6-7-2016 @11.23 when gold was about 1240's. So DUST is up more relative to our current gold of 1265.
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Bigbadbozza
5 months ago
$25 seems like strong support fro GDX, I need DUST to reach back to $15 to break even.
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pbartashevich PRO Bigbadbozza
5 months ago
You will get it by Thursday :). IF they vote to stay :)
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Bigbadbozza pbartashevich
5 months ago
Fingers crossed. :)
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ice_holly01 Bigbadbozza
5 months ago
I bought DUST @14.5. Fingers crossed.
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nnavarrete PRO Bigbadbozza
5 months ago
I fell your pain.. I need 12.50... actually around 13 on JDST to break even
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Here we go! :) GDX $25 broken :) DUST $11.06 broken too.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
Yeah. Big guys cant hide their selling.
So we might have that gap down tomorrow...
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Notyour chartwatchers
5 months ago
Same view here. Yesterday I loaded a truck of DUST
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Bigbadbozza
5 months ago
GDX just broke through $25, open the flood gates, she's going down.
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Richmand808 PRO
5 months ago
Whoa! 12.5+ million shares GDX just sold at the last minute of the market.
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chartwatchers PRO Richmand808
5 months ago
Setting up the gap down open
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Richmand808 PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
Thanks Arpi. That makes sense. I am in DUST so looking for to it.
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Yellen did a lousy job today. Need to perform better tomorrow to get DXY up to 95ish :).
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
LOL
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the_roggy
5 months ago
I chickened out last week and sold my DUST with quite a loss :-(... (luckily I kept my shorts on Gold)... I entered DUST today again about at the same price as I entered the previous time...

Crossing fingers for a gap-down open... so it can solve my stupidity losses ;-)...

Thanks a lot for all your very interesting posts "Chartwatchers". I've just started investing since the end of december 2015 (excellent timing :-(...)... but learned a lot for a big part thanks to you!
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jaguar4598
5 months ago
GDX goes with GDM and Gold does have an impact why not short NUGT as the play??
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If gold keeps falling. I am expecting GDX to hit $24.08 tomorrow. That would be 3.3% down move. DUST will move 10% up. That price should be only half of the move in GDX. Which points that gold is heading to $1200.
GDX - RAPIDLY LOOSING HOPE
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Dollar falling, Gold falling with it. Guys on CNBC made a case that Brexit is win/win for Gold since if they vote to stay DXY will fall and Gold will rise. We will see...
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marketpundit pbartashevich
5 months ago
No-Brexit Vote Consequence:

Expect commodities, mainly gold and silver, to plunge. There has been an enormous amount of gold and silver buying over the past two months or so as hedges against a calamity in the EU and Britain leaving. But if Britain doesn’t leave, those gold and silver hedges will get dumped before you can bat an eyelash. Same for mining stocks.

U.S. dollar will soar. Caught in a months-long sideways trading range, no-Brexit will send the dollar soaring, smashing other dollar-sensitive commodities along the way, everything from oil to soybeans.

Britain will MOST likely remain - No-Brexit Vote.
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pbartashevich PRO marketpundit
5 months ago
Agreed. Being in gold right now is even more risky than shorting it. So today they may offload some too.
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First 5 minutes volume in GSX is very low.
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GDX is lying right now. Major miners are much weaker: ABX, GG, NEM, KGC just a little above zero.
+1 Reply
I hope Yellen can fix DXY :).
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
It seems the dollar is gone. If UK stays in Euro will rally.
It seems DXY pricing that scenario
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pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
Pricing it in now reducing the move on Friday. As long as DXY above 92 we will be fine. I expect that jobs report next Frdiday will be good. They need it badly to restore credibility of the Fed.
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If UK vote to stay DAX will fly. It should suppress EUR somewhat. I wonder if DOW and S&P break their resistances they hadn't fall as much as DAX and NKY. That would be quite an achievement of Brexit "project" as DOW will break flag upward.
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marketpundit
5 months ago
Just as noted by Chartwatchers, DUST is not really responding to recent price drops in GOLD. Most action takes place in the morning (US Markets), at leas for the last 2 days. During the second part of the day, DUST is not performing at all. GDX is not dropping with Gold dropping either. I am sure all will change after UK referendum vote tomorrow with results on Friday morning.
Personally, I am short gold through DUST. - expecting NO-Brexit vote. ))))
+1 Reply
Billeci marketpundit
5 months ago
As you noted, marketpundit, at this hour it's wash, rinse, and repeat with DUST / JDUST. Continued weakness in lieu of Gold's price action.
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Billeci
5 months ago
With no technicals to back up my thought and going off of Arpi's original post here, it sure looks like GDX is being propped up at this hour for a spike lower at the end of the trading session.
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xiiimik
5 months ago
What about to 1270 then down? Thanks
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I am keeping DUST until it is over. By the way Brexit "stay" vote opens door for a Fed rate hike in July. Yellen said yesterday that he expects 2 rate hikes this yer but they will be quiet until Friday's job report. Which has to be good. :)
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jinyuji210
5 months ago
but DUST is keeping down? weird
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Richmand808 PRO
5 months ago
Where do you folks have your DUST stop limits?
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toothless
5 months ago
Hi Arpi,

"big players might be positioning in miner longs...."

Can you elaborate? You're saying banks are thinking gold will go up?
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Scaring shorts out... Not buying. They not gonna "Let the Britains go".
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toothless pbartashevich
5 months ago
aaaah, I see!
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isaac312 PRO
5 months ago
perfect set up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ARPI GOGOGOGOGO ARPI ARPI ARPI!!!!!!! GOGOGOGO
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Outer bar on lower volume how that should be interpreted?
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GDX is obviously now manipulated. They don't want gold to go up. Period.
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huanle
5 months ago
It has happened to GDX a few times already. At the end of day (last hour of trading) there is a break out of volume. What kind of movement does this mean? Institution manipulation?
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Richmand808 PRO huanle
5 months ago
Yes! Happened again today...15 million GDX shares just moved.
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pbartashevich PRO Richmand808
5 months ago
Last hour is last hour last chance to place your bet for tomorrow, nothing more. Yesterday last hour volume was bigger than that. Same before yesterday. The whole move wasn't supported by gold & silver & DXY, so smells fishy.
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GDX after hours volume: 12,650,129 and counting. Price around $25.38.
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
Yeap supposed to be under 1mln shares as in pre-market. I checked other mining stocks pre and after hours volumes and they have much smaller and comparable. If I got it right after hours is mostly traded by financial institutions. Looks like the institution that bought all that 12mln volume last 30 minutes sold it off quietly in after-hours before 5pm.
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jaguar4598
5 months ago
trying to understand your comment----------------------GDX and GDXJ you think they will get slammed what do you mean taking long positions in miners?
gold sells off and big players buy miners? just trying to understand and thanks
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SteveHer
5 months ago
Means down GDX and NUGT
Up DUST
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nnavarrete PRO
5 months ago
Hello Arpi,

For all of us that followed the initial short idea at 1240 and are currently stuck with DUST or JDST...

Would you recommend to keep it until tomorrow or take the loss today?

Gold is currently at around 1261. JDST should be at least at 13 dollars, but its currently at 10.90 - GDX and GDXJ are either being manipulated and all the retail traders are going long and the banks are shorting it and they will drop the bomb tomorrow.... or there is something shady really going on that might spike them tomorrow.. leaving all of us shorts with nothing in our banks.

Thanks again for all your help!
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Billeci
5 months ago
JDST performing much better than anticipated in the early hours with gold soaring overnight, but having pulled back. Potentially, the price movement is simply filling the gap, but would have expected a -30% crush (as it was doing in pre-market). Otherwise, the lack of strength / selling over the last few days may have cushioned today's blow and turn into a decent setup once gold settles out from the Brexit mania!
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