AMEX:GDX   VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
292 31 9
At this point there's no significant difference in the green and red interpretations. Both assume a correction is about to complete. The potential upside in wave (3) is massive, ~200% unleveraged from the GDX             21 region.

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nick.holland78
GDX - 2h
nick.holland78 PRO about GDX 27 2 months ago
Closer view. I'm not concerned/surprised with wave cir-iii overshooting a bit. Waiting for long entries, not shorting this move personally.
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Unless this already bottomed in an unorthodox w-x-y, which seems unlikely given the nature of the rally so far, I'm counting this as a higher cir-iv. There are other possibilities such as a larger A-B-C also, allowing this bounce to go significantly higher. There's even potential for the correction to go lower than I've indicated but no need for long positions to panic obviously.
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AmitKumareb nick.holland78
a month ago
Has your wavecount been invalidated with today's rally?
What happens in case of a Trump win?
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nick.holland78 PRO AmitKumareb
a month ago
I don't analyze news (Trump vs. Clinton, today's FOMC). Granted news can be a catalyst, no question.
Today's rally went right to the 100% extension which suggests an A=100% x C correction (of some degree) assuming a pullback. I have it labeled as a higher cir-iv, but the overlap with wave cir-i down really makes a larger A-B-C fit better according to Elliott Wave Principle. There's an outside chance this was an expanding Leading Diagonal (white count) however these are not high-confidence trades. Holding a corrective pull-back and taking out today's high would lend higher confidence for a rally to test this year's highs.
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AmitKumareb nick.holland78
a month ago
Thanks
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Today's rally complicates the picture. Need more price action to narrow the possibilities. I've repurposed red count as an elongated flat. Who knows? Could take several nasty corrective forms. The white count above appears here as a sub-structure to yellow 5 of a higher (1). Wave 4 in yellow went a bit deep for me (would have been better had it stopped at 23.28 line), but yellow still technically valid. Difference in red/yellow really only a consideration if price holds a corrective retrace in coming days, then rallies only to stall in low 30s as white cir-iii or red B (still a good long trade). My preference is for green C of (2), but since when did the market care what I prefer.
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Daily chart. Clear as mud at this point. Again, need more price action to narrow possibilities.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
a month ago
Nice chart!
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Jv200909. Jv200909.
a month ago
Low vol rally
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Here's the HUI index (daily). Looks like it could get a i-ii of (3) while GDX get a lower C of (2). My HUI waves are labeled at different degree from GDX I think, but you get the idea.
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Small bounce and another squiggle lower will place me firmly on the green path with 5-down. Currently only 3-down with potential for higher bounce setting up either red or white. Still watching for price clues.
15min chart
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Overnight AH price action (not shown) looks like a possible 5-down for green (i). Here with only RTH looks like 3-down for (a) of cir-b or white cir-ii. Ambiguity continues. Holding support and taking out the recent high would be highly suggestive of a bounce in at least red B. Could turn into white cir-v of yellow 5 of (1). Clear? Yeah, not to me either.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
a month ago
Yes, next move is down.
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Jv200909. Jv200909.
22 days ago
@Jv200909., Target for v maybe 21.50 region?
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Jv200909. Jv200909.
22 days ago
@Jv200909., The small iii down=22.22. Small iv=22.80-22.90 This is my best guess for now.
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nick.holland78 PRO Jv200909.
21 days ago
@Jv200909., Looks like. Going over some individual names right now. Getting my buy list ready.
AG, AGU, AKG, AU, AUMN, AUY, BTG, CDE, EGI, EXK, FCX, FNG, FSM, GPL, GSS, GSV, HL, HMY, KGC, KLDX, PASS, TGD, MUX, RGLD, SA, VGZ
Maybe others.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
21 days ago
@nick.holland78, But I am concerned about the high volume sell off, check the daily, weekly and monthly. If this kind of vol continues we can see 19 and even 18. I was trying to post this ealier but had trouble loggin in.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
21 days ago
@nick.holland78, The lack of bounces is concerning, we just cut through 50wma and 200wma like butter.
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Jv200909. Jv200909.
21 days ago
@Jv200909., Right now we should be bouncing hard but it is hesitating.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
21 days ago
@nick.holland78, What do you think Nick?
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nick.holland78 PRO Jv200909.
21 days ago
@Jv200909., In my green oval with what looks like possible (nearly) complete Ending Diagonal for C of (2). I'm adding to many individual names today. Will post an updated GDX chart later.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
20 days ago
@nick.holland78, Nick, can you update your chart as soon as you have the time? I would like to see your wave counts more clearly. But , I don't see a final bottom here today. A bounce is possible.
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Green count appears to be operative. I'm leaving the potential for an expanded flat in larger B-wave correction (red) until an impulsive rally forms off presumed coming low.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
21 days ago
@nick.holland78, WE still needs to see a iv bounce, and it better be a good one. I believe in a red B now, just not sure if it will go that high. The macd on the weekly is bearish :( . Just hope things will turn around soon and that we get a strong wave iv.
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nick.holland78 PRO Jv200909.
20 days ago
@Jv200909., With the cir-iv overlapping cir-i, a completion of the correction right here can only count as an ending diagonal. Could be more squiggles, sure. Could take a few more days. Also possible that the ED completes and rips higher. Indices are a good example of that recently. Can quibble about just how to sub-divide the completed counts but no question that the correction completed on those.
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
20 days ago
@nick.holland78, So in an ending diagonal you don't see an obvious wave iv bounce, is that what you are indicating?
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nick.holland78 PRO Jv200909.
20 days ago
@Jv200909., May well see a small iv-v, but also possible this thing wraps up outside RTH and reverses hard. Better to layer in if you are trying to catch the bottom. Or, if less aggressive, wait for an impulsive rally to suggest it's turned. Personally, I find I'm too hesitant to buy when the rally starts as I start placing bids too far below price. Then it'll be in the heart of the 3rd and I'm watching...saying to myself, "Saw it coming" and didn't take the trade...
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Jv200909. nick.holland78
20 days ago
@nick.holland78, Nick, sorry, what is RTH? I know that feeling of missing a rally, it's depressing.
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nick.holland78 PRO Jv200909.
20 days ago
@Jv200909., Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
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Jv200909.
20 days ago
Thanks Nick, have a relaxing Friday night!!
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Looks like this red alt is operative at the moment.
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