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Seasonality will take prices to 45$ by the end of August.
Expect pullback to 41$ by September for the same reason.
US elections, COVID, and year end seasonality will take the price to 52$
Expect pullback to 41$ by September for the same reason.
US elections, COVID, and year end seasonality will take the price to 52$
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Also note mining stocks bottomed on 1/19/16 over a month after gold bottomed. It's possible that gold can rally a bit further but not take the miners with them. Sometimes the miners warn of a top before the physical metal tops, on the bottom side at least in that late 2015 early 2016 the metal bottomed first.
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@SamSzulc, I think the key difference is macro context. In 2016 the economy was in good shape, only Trump and brexit could add some risks that make gold go higher. In 2020 the macro context is perfect for gold, I really dont see a reason why it would not continue to move in an uptrend.
The Fed and ECB have made clear they will sacrifice the currencies if necessary to reactivate the economy. Each day central banks are losing more credibility. Everybody knows that right now the only thing that matters is Fed money printing. It is what keeps markets up. People are beggining to lose trust in fiat currencies, and this is a long term trend, there is simply no way out, they either repay debt via stagflation or jubilee. Both favour gold.
My only concern about this play is that emerging countries may nationalize their mines once emerging currencies lose their purchasing power and hyperinflation starts kicking in in those countries.
The Fed and ECB have made clear they will sacrifice the currencies if necessary to reactivate the economy. Each day central banks are losing more credibility. Everybody knows that right now the only thing that matters is Fed money printing. It is what keeps markets up. People are beggining to lose trust in fiat currencies, and this is a long term trend, there is simply no way out, they either repay debt via stagflation or jubilee. Both favour gold.
My only concern about this play is that emerging countries may nationalize their mines once emerging currencies lose their purchasing power and hyperinflation starts kicking in in those countries.
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I think the fact the stock indices became unhinged drove many new investors to mining stocks as a safety play but is worrisome, silver usually goes bananas at the end of a move, we've seen that in the past few days. If this is the end of wave C, a correction from the highs made in 2011 then we're coming close or already made some sort of high. Expecting elections, COVID, and a questionable year end seasonality is conventional wisdom that rarely gets rewarded. Last important top in gold occurred on 9/6/11 and was down dramatically to end of year and much further, silver topped in May of that year. Gold was weak into 12/15/15 (late end of year) where it bottomed and gave birth to this. Hopefully, we only tested a gap today and not anything else.
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I wonder if we're in a least a correction as of this morning breaking near by support at 40.99 as low 40.21 but there's a gap near that low that may have been filled, we've poked back up to retest that broken support like a kiss goodbye,coming under 40 is at least short term bearish or worse.
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Buy at every dip, this is a long term trend.