1. metals have essentially been in a five year bear market. It would be highly unusual in my opinion for this to develop into an uptrend wave pattern on its first major reversal in 5 years. this month long move has been substantial, but for the above stated reason, I dont think that this is a wave pattern where: february-august was A, september-december was b and january is the start of the next major wave. After a 5 year blood bath, I think the low has to be retested, which in my mind invalidates the idea of this as an uptrend wave pattern.
2. As soon as this stock crossed the existing downtrend line it began to consolidate. this is exactly what happened in november before it was beaten back down (these are the circles small circles on the chart with the reddish background).
to play devils advocate though...
this is the first significant period of time above the 50 day moving average since august
this situation is slightly different from what i described in number 2 because that was a move that arose from political drivers.
Currently my plan is to be bearish on gdx until around 15, close those positions and sit back and see if a bottom develops, which to me would signal a long term reversal and the start of a significant uptrend.