chartwatchers
Long

GDX/GDXJ - Constructing a bear trap

AMEX:GDX   VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
5171 64 62
1.63 $ from our last intermediate low.
0.6 $ from the magic 200 SMA and the bottom of the GAP.

I've started to accumulate miners today. If we close the GAP and tag the 200 SMA I will be adding to the position tomorrow.
It's unbelievable but the miners started the ICL decline before gold             . So the miners will bottom first and gold             will follow the miners. We shouldn't fall below the previous ICL at 22$.
For advanced traders I suggest NUGT             and JNUG             . It will be a unique possibility to buy miners.

GDX             and GDXJ             are already at extreme oversold levels where bottomed in the past ( RSI ). Banks will do everything to lose your positions. If you are in the game already hold the position.

Comment: GDX
Brutal volume today. Smartmoney forced gold to drop with 25.000 contract dump.
The small guys stopped out.
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Comment: GDXJ
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Comment: Look the volume at the reversals in the past:
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Comment: JNUG. LOL.
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Comment: NUGT.
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Comment: How long they will wait the miners to go up?
1 day ? 2 days? Next week the latest when miners will rally with gold.
Comment: GDX closed the gap and tagged the 200 SMA.
I'M adding to my positions again.
It's a unique possibility.
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Comment: As miners started this intermediate decline earlier than gold I think miners will bottom first.
Maybe today ....
Comment: I will update gold on twitter.
Will leave the trolls alone to short it here.
Comment: Bouncing from the 200 SMA on the daily.
It can easily be the bottom.
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Comment: Lower low, but we are running out of sellers....
We are bottoming...
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Comment: GDXJ, JNUG, NUGT is the same.
No one left to sell.
Comment: Shares moved into the big hands of banks.
Comment: Updated gold on twitter.
Comment: It seems we will pop today but you can buy every dip.
It's building the bottom.
Comment:
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opening at 39$
Comment: I think we need to get positioned here today : at least a starting position.
Miners will bottom ahead of gold. I tend to think that in the night (GMT) (afternoon EST) when China opens there will be one more spike down to 1230-40 in gold.
That will be bought by Tuesday.
Comment: 39$...
+4% - not bad for your options
Comment: Lower volume again and seems we will be closing above the 200 SMA.
Very good sign. The bottom might be in.
It's a good buy today again.
GDX,GDXJ,NUGT,JNUG
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Comment: Swing in the miners.
Miners are bottoming ahead of gold today.
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Today's candle is similar to 2016-05-18 and 2016-06-16
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Thanks
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HUI filled the gap!... I think this is it .. bull now
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watsonzou26 nnavarrete
178.6 might be touched if you think ab=cd works.
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Thanks for your chart, Arpi. But how we know smartmoney is loading theirs longs, do you think they are starting now?
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Thanks for the update. Where did you get that contract dump info?
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The difference between bounces earlier this year and now is that today was the first big move down after break major trend line in Gold. It well may continue falling until NFP report on Friday. I think GDX will touch $22 for sure. Another difference is that the correction now is wave of higher degree Elliott wave counting than we had earlier this year. So move can be much bigger. Just be careful. I sold 3/4 of positions today at the beginning of the day a at loss and sold the rest in the middle of the day. I don't think it is over yet. I am looking for daily RSI to turn bullish. Weekly RSI broke below 50 today. I think it may touch oversold line before reversal.
+3 Reply
watsonzou26 pbartashevich
Agree, falling is not done yet, my experience:wait.
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albertwt watsonzou26
OK, Do you mean the same with XAUUSD bearish movement this week ?
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Yes. We have broke major trend line. Now searching support. I think the biggest one we have is around $1200. I drew one parallel line to major trend line and it should meet the price at around $1220.
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watsonzou26 albertwt
Normally the same as with xauusd. I guess late of this week we will see buy points.
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Picked up more shares of JNUG today and will pick up some more after the bounce. This is a great buying opportunity folks! Don't miss it. Weekly Stochastics are oversold.. That's when you wanna start buying :)

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+4 Reply
indeed :o) nice ...
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Nightstar webmiztriz
That's what she said :o)
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no ... she said .. "wow .. look at that volume swelling ... and that wide range thrusting bar .... "
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Nightstar webmiztriz
The word 'thrusting' has such a nice ring to it. Me likes.
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Thank you! I love the way you don't only share, but also teach.

By the by: Confidence in banks hasn't been this low in 20 years in Sweden (when they had to raise interest rates to 500% due to heavy speculation against the swedish crona). One in four has low confidence in banks.(so far they still keep there money there though.) This according to all major news stations in Sweden, published 3 or 4 day ago.)

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Hey CW, not everyone follows you on twitter.

Mind continue positing your updates here : )

I just posted this - in the same direction for "Gold & Co" as you:

"Bullishits" flag has failed. Can triangle still save bull run?
+2 Reply
what is your twitter?
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JesseL jinyuji210
Find the twitter link at the top of his profile page or go here:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArpiKerenyi
+2 Reply
Thanks Arpi. Got back in the game with Silver. 1/3 for now.
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Only 4 more dollars to go into that resistance zone.
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you need a doctor!
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Nice prediction with 200 EMA!
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maybe today 1260s hold it but need to see Friday to enter a trade
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I guess it was true, manipulators really needed to close pre-brexit shorts.......
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big brutal bullish hammer may be forming on the daily todayu, 50 more minutes...
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Ok - my average buy is 11.67 on NUGT. Let's see if we can win that last one back. Thanks for the timing updates Arpi!
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loading 400 GDX OCT 21 CALL AT 24.00!!! WHAT A CHEAP DEAL!!! LOAD TODAY AND TOMORROW! MORE!
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VirtualFax playthetrend
What price?
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playthetrend VirtualFax
0.44
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VirtualFax playthetrend
Cool! Thanks man and the best of luck!
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playthetrend VirtualFax
Thanks. It is just way too cheap. I am done today. Game tomorrow.
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VirtualFax playthetrend
If we are seeing the bottom here, it's, indeed, dirt cheap.
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playthetrend VirtualFax
People see gold as shit now. I am skepitcal about Friday data. and monday China buy!! I would load more if data pprefers on Friday.
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VirtualFax playthetrend
Same here, though Friday might provide the initial impulse after the morning NFP related volatility. I've seen before strong green Fridays after a multi-day massacre. But only time will tell.
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playthetrend VirtualFax
As planned. I bought 4000s jnug at 10.74 in pm.
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VirtualFax playthetrend
Cool. Hope we'll make some cash out of it. Good luck, man!

I picked up some yesterday. Though originally had an order at $9.61 (May 31 low) but then got anxious after the price bounced off $9.80 and ended up entering at 9.91, right before the price got all the way down to 9.50 : ).

Should never be changing original plans which are usually curved out in the calm environment of the preceding night!
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playthetrend VirtualFax
I admire your price, oh , boy. Yesterday I bought options. Today, I may sell jung for some profit and buy options again. The bottom seems solid to me.
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VirtualFax playthetrend
Don't admire - just luck. Though had been discussed at some point with my other JNUG pal here. Great guy and does awesome analysis. He got stuck a bit but I sincerely hope he'll get out soon:

Jnug to Gold
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playthetrend VirtualFax
My gut feeling is: monday is a big buy.
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VirtualFax playthetrend
I hope so
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VirtualFax playthetrend
I got stopped at b/e, hope you did too
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playthetrend VirtualFax
I sold JNUG in the morning for profit. I am thinking about selling my options. What happened just now?
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VirtualFax playthetrend
Same old story - Gold moving in the direction opposite to where we want it too : )
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playthetrend VirtualFax
Interesting. Take a look at OIL. I started to short OIL yesterday. Looking like today is nice to build short too.
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Agreed. I have learned quite a bit in this week... from my own observations (as a result of studying) and from your analyses and insights. Thank you, Arpi.
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And after providing these valuable insights you were trying to call it "quit".

C'mon man, just stay calm and carry on ; )
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Nightstar VirtualFax
Who's calling it quits?? Arpi..? Naaaah dude! He just doesn't wanna put up with the trolls ___ Can you blame him?!

Don't forget: He's putting all of this hard work together for free :)
+4 Reply
VirtualFax Nightstar
No, I can't blame him and very true re hard work for free.
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thank you for the update. you are the best.
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Hey, using TWTR for the Gold update is not cool : )
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But at least don't have to fight there with the morons...
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VirtualFax chartwatchers
Can they not comment on your private post?
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Thanks for Sharing!
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The volume on JNUG was savage this morning
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"Shares moved into the big hands of banks." how do you understand this? Can you explain please, Arpi?
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Thank you! Man you've made your mark already. I would rather keep low for some days. Speculation sentiments are net long and it will be against yourself orders.
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Yup - NUGT is climbing. I think I finally got IN at the right time. Now lets see if I get OUT at the right time. :)
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Bullish RSI divergence on daily. Volume continuing to lower. Looking for a classic rebound, but I wonder if the crazy political sh*t going on in USA is going to keep this coiling for a while....
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We see NUGT first time standing up 9 ma.
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I wouldn't be so quick to call a bottom just yet boys! I'm posting a 4 hour Chart of Silver but GDXJ is also showing a triangular formation which could indicate that the Metals may have one more low to print before lift off..!

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Is it still an ICL?
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